ABSTRACT

Are terrorist groups with multiple home bases more or less predisposed to direct their violence at home or abroad? Moreover, what are the determinants of home-base terrorist attacks? We address those and related questions using the Extended Data on Terrorist Groups for 1970–2016. In so doing, we find that religious terrorist groups are less inclined than groups with other ideologies to conduct home-base attacks. In addition, multi-base terrorist groups are more apt to attack within their base country or countries after, but not before, 1990. In addition, our empirics indicate that terrorist groups with an empire goal are more inclined to attack outside their home base than groups possessing other goals (e.g., policy change or territorial ambitions). Democracy encourages home-base terrorist attacks.

摘要

拥有多个基地的恐怖组织是否或多或少倾向于在国内或国外指挥他们的暴力活动？此外，本土恐怖袭击的决定因素是什么？我们使用 1970-2016 年恐怖组织的扩展数据来解决这些和相关问题。这样做时，我们发现宗教恐怖组织比具有其他意识形态的组织更不倾向于进行基地袭击。此外，多基地恐怖组织更倾向于在 1990 年之后（但不是之前）在其基地国家或多个国家发动袭击。此外，我们的经验表明，与帝国目标相比，具有帝国目标的恐怖组织更倾向于在基地外发动袭击。拥有其他目标（例如，政策变化或领土野心）的群体。民主鼓励以家庭为基地的恐怖袭击。