This study aims to contribute to understanding urban spatial and temporal patterns of social disorganization and homicide rates in São Paulo, Brazil (2000–2015). Using exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial panel regression techniques, we describe spatial-temporal patterns of homicide rates and assess to what extent social disorganization can explain between-district variation in homicide trajectories. The results showed some variation in the pattern of homicide decline across districts, and less disorganized communities experienced earlier, more linear declines. However, we found no evidence to suggest that changes in social disorganization are associated with differences in the decline in homicide rates.

这项研究旨在帮助理解巴西圣保罗（2000-2015年）的社会混乱和凶杀率的城市时空格局。使用探索性空间数据分析和空间面板回归技术，我们描述了凶杀率的时空格局，并评估了社会混乱可以在多大程度上解释凶杀轨迹的区间变化。结果表明，各地区凶杀案的下降方式有所不同，混乱程度较低的社区经历了更早，更线性的下降。但是，我们没有发现证据表明社会混乱的变化与凶杀率下降的差异有关。