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Modeling the effects of crop management on food barley production under a midcentury changing climate in northern Ethiopia
Climate Risk Management ( IF 4.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-20 , DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100308
A. Araya , P.V.V. Prasad , P.H. Gowda , M. Djanaguiramana , Y. Gebretsadkan

A crop simulation model was calibrated to (i) identify optimal planting date and quantify the impacts of nitrogen fertilizer and planting date on barley yield, and (ii) evaluate the responses of barley yield to climate change factors at Adigudom area, northern Ethiopia. Response of barley to seven planting dates at 10-days increments from 20-Jun and nine fertilizer rates at 16 kg/ha increments from 0 kg N/ha under five different soil types were evaluated. There were three irrigation treatment levels: I0 (no irrigation application); I1 (deficit irrigation: 4 irrigations); and I2 (full irrigation). Response of barley to midcentury (2040–2069) climate data from three global climate models under higher emission scenario was evaluated. The model simulated the barley biomass, yield, days to flowering and maturity satisfactorily. The optimal planting window for coarse, medium and fine textured soils were July 1 to July 20, July 1 to July 30 and July 20 to August 10, respectively. The optimal N fertilizer for the respective soils was 64, 32 and 32 kg N/ha, respectively. The difference between the simulated rainfed yield under optimal N fertilizer and on farm yield was estimated to be 1.1 Mg/ha. About 0.6 ± 0.4 and 0.5 ± 0.2 Mg/ha of the yield losses were due to nitrogen deficit and inappropriate planting date, respectively. Average barley grain yield is expected to decrease by 6–11% during the midcentury. This study showed that timely planting and N management along with elevated CO2 could contribute to yield enhancement and minimize the risk associated with future climate change.



中文翻译:

在世纪中期气候变化的埃塞俄比亚北部,模拟作物管理对粮食大麦生产的影响

校准作物模拟模型以(i)确定最佳播种日期并量化氮肥和播种日期对大麦产量的影响,以及(ii)评估大麦产量对埃塞俄比亚北部阿迪古多地区气候变化因子的响应。在5种不同的土壤类型下,评估了大麦对从20日开始10天增量的七个播种日期的响应以及从0千克N /公顷开始以16 kg / ha增量的九种肥料的响应。共有三个灌溉处理级别:I 0(不进行灌溉);I 0(不进行灌溉);I 1(亏缺灌溉:4次灌溉);和我2(全面灌溉)。评价了大麦对高排放情景下三种全球气候模型对世纪​​中叶(2040-2069)气候数据的响应。该模型令人满意地模拟了大麦的生物量,产量,开花天数和成熟度。粗,中,细纹理土壤的最佳种植窗口分别是7月1日至7月20日,7月1日至7月30日以及7月20日至8月10日。每种土壤的最佳氮肥分别为64、32和32 kg N / ha。在最佳氮肥条件下模拟雨养产量与农场产量之间的差异估计为1.1 Mg / ha。大约0.6±0.4和0.5±0.2 Mg / ha的产量损失分别是由于氮缺乏和不适当的播种日期造成的。预计本世纪中叶,大麦平均单产将下降6-11%。2可能有助于提高单产并将与未来气候变化相关的风险降到最低。

更新日期:2021-04-20
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