当前位置: X-MOL 学术Pure Appl. Geophys. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Comprehensive Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment in the Makran Subduction Zone
Pure and Applied Geophysics ( IF 2 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-20 , DOI: 10.1007/s00024-021-02725-y
Parastoo Salah , Jun Sasaki , Mohsen Soltanpour

In the wake of the unprecedented disaster caused by the 2004 and 2011 tsunamis, efforts by the scientific community have highlighted the important role of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) in tsunami-prone areas. The Makran subduction zone (MSZ) is a hazardous tsunami-prone region; however, due to its low population density, it is not as prominent in the literature. In this study, we assess the threat a tsunami hazard poses to the coast of Iran and Pakistan by the MSZ and present a comprehensive PTHA for the entire coast regardless of population density. We accounted for sources of epistemic uncertainties by employing event tree and ensemble modeling. Aleatory variability was also considered through the probability density function. Further, we considered the contribution of small to large magnitudes and used our event trees to create a multitude of scenarios as initial conditions. Funwave-TVD was employed to propagate these scenarios. Our results demonstrate that the spread of hazard curves for different locations on the coast is remarkably large, and the probability that a maximum wave will exceed 3 m somewhere along the coast reaches \(\{13.5, 25, 52, 74, 91\}\) for return periods \(\{50,100, 250, 500, 1000\}\), respectively. Moreover, we found that the exceedance probability could be higher at the west part of Makran for a long return period, if we consider it as active as the east part of the MSZ. Finally, we demonstrate that the contribution of aleatory variability is significant, and overlooking it leads to a significant hazard underestimation, particularly for a long return period.



中文翻译:

Makran俯冲带的综合概率海啸危险评估

在2004年和2011年海啸造成前所未有的灾难之后,科学界的努力突显了概率性海啸危险性评估(PTHA)在海啸多发地区的重要作用。马克兰俯冲带(MSZ)是一个容易发生海啸的危险地区。但是,由于人口密度低,在文献中没有那么突出。在这项研究中,我们评估了海啸造成的海啸威胁对MSZ造成的伊朗和巴基斯坦海岸构成的威胁,并提出了不考虑人口密度的整个海岸的全面PTHA。我们通过采用事件树和集成模型来说明认知不确定性的来源。还通过概率密度函数考虑了可变性。更多, Funwave-TVD被用来传播这些场景。我们的结果表明,危险曲线在海岸不同位置的散布非常大,并且最大波浪在海岸某处超过3 m的概率达到\(\ {13.5,25,52,74,91 \} \)分别对应返回期\(\ {50,100,250,500,1000 \} \)。此外,我们发现,如果我们认为Makran与MSZ的东部一样活跃,那么在漫长的回报期内,Makran的西部超出概率可能会更高。最后,我们证明了偶然性变异的影响是显着的,而忽略它会导致重大的风险低估,特别是在较长的回报期内。

更新日期:2021-04-20
down
wechat
bug