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Analyzing the effects of sea ice melting and atmospheric heat transport on the warming around arctic based on comparable analysis and coupling modes
Atmospheric Research ( IF 5.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-20 , DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105630
Hongqian Wu , Ren Zhang , Yangjun Wang , Mei Hong , Hengqian Yan , Jilin Zhu

The Arctic warming has become a key signal with global climate change in recent decades. In this study, sea ice volume and whole layer atmospheric heat flux divergence were used to represent the local factor and external transport, respectively. The random forest algorithm was adopted to study the nonlinear effects and variations in importance between the local factors and external transport on Arctic warming between 1979 and 2018. The multivariate empirical orthogonal function decomposition method was applied to explore the coupling structure among sea ice volume, heat flux divergence, and temperature at different altitudes, locate the main passages of atmospheric heat transport to the Arctic, and explore the physical mechanisms of extreme Arctic climate events in the past two years. The analysis results suggest that sea ice has a significant impact on lower-level warming, and the atmospheric heat transport is essential in regulating temperature changes in the middle and upper troposphere. Additionally, on an interdecadal scale, the average state of Arctic warming was found to be strongly related to the Arctic Ocean Oscillation index, explaining the warming trend in the Atlantic sector. The trend is jointly controlled by the heat transport passages in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The abrupt change in 2017–2018 was caused by the increased heat transport in the Pacific Ocean and weakened heat transport in the Atlantic Ocean, leading to abnormal warming and cooling near the two passages. On a seasonal scale, heat transport increase in the three passages located in 1) the Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea, 2) the Nordic Peninsula and the Barents Sea, 3) the Bering Sea and the East Siberian Sea likely causes regional differences in Arctic summer warming. The increased heat transport in the Bering Sea and East Siberian Sea passage in winter made the Pacific sector significantly warmer. A positive feedback mechanism was created by the change in the circulation field between the temperature and Pacific heat transport.



中文翻译:

基于可比分析和耦合模式分析海冰融化和大气热传输对北极变暖的影响

近几十年来,北极变暖已成为全球气候变化的关键信号。在这项研究中,海冰量和整层大气热通量的发散分别代表了局部因素和外部迁移。采用随机森林算法研究了1979年至2018年北极变暖的局部因素和外部输运之间的非线性影响及其重要性的变化。运用多元经验正交函数分解方法研究了海冰量,热量之间的耦合结构。通量的发散和不同高度的温度,确定了大气热传递到北极的主要通道,并探讨了过去两年北极极端气候事件的物理机制。分析结果表明,海冰对低层变暖有重大影响,大气热传递对于调节中高层对流层温度变化至关重要。此外,在年代际尺度上,发现北极变暖的平均状态与北极海洋涛动指数密切相关,这说明了大西洋板块的变暖趋势。这种趋势是由太平洋和大西洋的热传输通道共同控制的。2017-2018年的突然变化是由于太平洋的热传输增加和大西洋的热传输减弱,导致两条通道附近的异常变暖和变冷。在季节性尺度上,位于1)巴芬湾和拉布拉多海的三个通道中的热传递增加,2)北欧半岛和巴伦支海,3)白令海和东西伯利亚海可能导致北极夏季变暖的地区差异。冬季,白令海和东西伯利亚海通道的热传递增加,使太平洋地区明显变暖。通过温度与太平洋热传输之间的循环场变化,建立了一种积极的反馈机制。

更新日期:2021-04-20
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