In this paper we simulate the economic impacts and land use changes associated with a volcanic eruption scenario for the Auckland region of New Zealand for a period of 20 years following the eruption. The simulation demonstrates the capability to model not only the direct physical impacts associated with infrastructure and land use destruction and disruption, but also population and business evacuation and relocation, and the flow-on socio-economic and land use planning implications associated with recovery. Importantly, these phenomena are considered alongside longer-term growth-related pressures on city development. Our simulations demonstrate how taking longer to remediate the area directly impacted by the volcanic eruption can result in more urban development on the urban-rural boundaries than might have otherwise occurred. Furthermore, we show how changes in where urban development may occur can be simulated in response to impacts on the region's transport network and when redevelopment can, or is allowed, to begin in the area physically impacted by the eruption. We discuss opportunities for further developments to incorporate a wider range of socio-economic and land use change effects associated with volcanic eruptions into this modelling. These developments will enable planning authorities to assess trade-offs with competing objectives in mitigation and redevelopment strategies to respond to volcanic eruptions and other natural hazard events.

在本文中，我们模拟了火山爆发后20年内与新西兰火山地区的火山爆发相关的经济影响和土地利用变化。该模拟展示了不仅可以对与基础设施和土地使用的破坏和破坏相关的直接物理影响进行建模的能力，而且还可以对人口和企业撤离和迁移以及与恢复相关的持续的社会经济和土地使用规划影响进行建模的能力。重要的是，应将这些现象与与长期增长相关的城市发展压力一起考虑。我们的模拟表明，如何花更长的时间来补救受火山喷发直接影响的区域，才能在城乡边界上带来比原本可能发生的更多的城市发展。此外，我们展示了如何模拟城市发展发生的变化以响应对该地区交通网络的影响，以及何时或可以在受到喷发物理影响的区域开始重建。我们讨论了进一步发展的机会，以便将与火山喷发相关的更广泛的社会经济和土地利用变化影响纳入该模型。这些发展将使规划机构能够评估在缓解和重建策略方面的权衡取舍，以应对火山喷发和其他自然灾害事件。我们讨论了进一步发展的机会，以便将与火山喷发相关的更广泛的社会经济和土地利用变化影响纳入该模型。这些发展将使规划机构能够评估在缓解和重建策略方面的权衡取舍，以应对火山喷发和其他自然灾害事件。我们讨论了进一步发展的机会，以便将与火山喷发相关的更广泛的社会经济和土地利用变化影响纳入该模型。这些发展将使规划机构能够评估在缓解和重建策略方面的权衡取舍，以应对火山喷发和其他自然灾害事件。