The onset of extreme social distancing measures is expected to have a dramatic impact on crime. Here, we examine the impact of mandated, city-wide social distancing orders aimed at limiting the spread of COVID-19 on gang-related crime in Los Angeles. We hypothesize that the unique subcultural processes surrounding gangs may supersede calls to shelter in place and allow gang-related crime to persist. If the normal guardianship of people and property is also disrupted by social distancing, then we expect gang violence to increase. Using autoregressive time series models, we show that gang-related crime remained stable and crime hot spots largely stationary following the onset of shelter in place.

中文翻译：

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在 COVID-19 社会疏远令之后，洛杉矶与帮派有关的犯罪活动保持稳定

预计极端社会疏离措施的开始将对犯罪产生巨大影响。在这里，我们研究了旨在限制 COVID-19 在洛杉矶与帮派有关的犯罪传播的强制性全市社会疏离令的影响。我们假设围绕帮派的独特亚文化过程可能会取代就地庇护的呼吁，并允许与帮派有关的犯罪持续存在。如果正常的人员和财产监护也因社交距离而中断，那么我们预计帮派暴力将会增加。使用自回归时间序列模型，我们表明与帮派有关的犯罪保持稳定，犯罪热点在庇护所开始后基本稳定。