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Hot Shots: An Analysis of the “Hot Hand” in NBA Field Goal and Free Throw Shooting
Journal of Sports Economics ( IF 1.848 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-19 , DOI: 10.1177/15270025211006889
Robert Lantis 1 , Erik Nesson 1
Affiliation  

We investigate the hot hand using detailed data on free throws and field goals attempts for 12 NBA seasons. We find a small hot hand for free throws, which more than doubles for longer streaks of made free throws. Both offenses and defenses respond to field goals, but a made field goal does not change the probability that a player makes his next field goal attempt, and longer streaks of made field goals reduce the probability that a player makes his next field goal attempt. Finally, a made field goal reduces the team’s expected points on their next shot.



中文翻译:

热门射门:NBA射门和罚球命中率的“热手”分析

我们使用有关12个NBA赛季的罚球和射门得分尝试的详细数据来调查热手。我们发现罚球的小手很不错,罚球的连胜次数增加了一倍以上。进攻和防守都对射门得分做出反应,但制定的射门得分不会改变玩家做出下一个射门得分的可能性,而较长的连续射门得分会降低玩家做出下一次射门得分的可能性。最后,做出的射门得分会降低球队在下一杆比赛中的预期得分。

更新日期:2021-04-19
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