Australian data show that women’s participation at the senior levels in astronomy remains at historically low levels, and that women depart astronomy at two to three times the rate of men. We present data-driven workforce models that predict the future trajectories of the gender fraction in academia, given different hiring and retention initiatives. If the status quo is maintained, the fraction of women at all levels will be below 30% for at least 60 years. If gender parity in hiring and retention targets are adopted, the fraction of 33% women at all levels can be achieved in 20 years. If affirmative action is introduced, the fraction of 33% and 50% women at all levels can be achieved in 10 and 25 years, respectively. Academic institutions need to (1) undertake exit surveys to understand why women depart, (2) adopt retention targets and initiatives to retain women, (3) develop equal hiring at all levels, and (4) support the advancement of women into senior positions.

澳大利亚的数据显示，女性在高级天文学领域的参与率仍处于历史低位，女性离开天文学的比例是男性的两到三倍。我们提出了数据驱动的劳动力模型，可以预测学术界性别比例的未来轨迹，考虑到不同的招聘和保留计划。如果保持现状，至少60年，各级女性的比例将低于30%。如果在招聘和留任目标中采用性别平等，则在 20 年内可以实现各级 33% 的女性比例。如果引入平权行动，则在 10 年和 25 年内可分别实现各级 33% 和 50% 的女性比例。学术机构需要 (1) 进行离职调查以了解女性离职的原因，