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Growth recurring in preindustrial Spain?
Cliometrica ( IF 1.583 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-17 , DOI: 10.1007/s11698-021-00232-7
Leandro Prados de la Escosura , Carlos Álvarez-Nogal , Carlos Santiago-Caballero

Research in economic history has challenged a strict Malthusian depiction of preindustrial European economies, highlighting ‘efflorescences’, ‘Smithian’ and ‘growth recurring’ episodes. Do these defining concepts apply to preindustrial Spain? In this paper, we carry out new yearly estimates of output and population for over half-a millennium. We find that our estimates of agricultural output on the basis of tithes largely confirm those obtained using a demand function approach supporting its use in the absence of direct information. We show that, although levels of output per head in the early nineteenth century were not much different from those in the eve of the Black Death, preindustrial Spain was far from stagnant. Phases of simultaneous per capita output and population expansion and shrinkage alternated, lending support to the recurring growth and frontier economy hypotheses. A long phase of sustained growth and lower inequality collapsed in the 1570s and gave way to another one of sluggish growth and higher inequality. As an alternative to a Malthusian interpretation, we hypothesise that, in preindustrial Spain, growth and decline are largely explained by individual and collective economic decisions.



中文翻译:

工业化前西班牙的经济正在恢复增长吗?

经济史研究挑战了马尔萨斯人对工业化前欧洲经济的严格描述,强调了“风风雨雨”,“史密斯式”和“增长反复”事件。这些定义性概念是否适用于工业化前的西班牙?在本文中,我们对半个千年以上的产量和人口进行了新的年度估算。我们发现,我们在十分之一的基础上对农业产量的估计在很大程度上证实了使用需求函数方法获得的估计值,而该函数在没有直接信息的情况下支持其使用。我们表明,尽管19世纪初期的人均产出水平与“黑死病”前夕的水平没有太大不同,但工业化前的西班牙远没有停滞不前。人均产出与人口扩张与收缩同时发生的阶段交替进行,为经常性增长和前沿经济假设提供支持。1570年代,长期的持续增长和较低的不平等现象崩溃了,而又由缓慢的增长和较高的不平等程度所取代。作为马尔萨斯主义解释的替代方法,我们假设在工业化前的西班牙,增长和衰退主要由个人和集体的经济决定来解释。

更新日期:2021-04-18
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