Significant effort has gone into identifying and assessing climate change impacts, often within tightly defined sectoral contexts or within specific administrative boundaries, for example in national adaptation plans. Interest is now growing among policy makers and researchers to better understand the transmission of climate impacts from one location to another. While impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research traditionally failed to take such climate impacts into account, a number of recent national-level scoping studies have recognized the potential significance of cross-border climate impacts. However, these studies have lacked an explicit futures perspective, and implicitly assumed static conditions under which cross-border climate impact is assessed.

This paper addresses this research gap by developing a scenario-based framework for the study of future cross-border climate impacts using the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We apply this framework to assess future cross-border climate impacts in Kenya. We develop ‘extended SSPs’ in a combined top-down and bottom-up approach implemented through a co-production process together with local stakeholders. The bottom-up element of our approach consists of local drivers for understanding Kenya’s vulnerability to future cross-border climate impacts, and the top-down element consists of the global SSPs as common boundary conditions. Finally, the extended SSPs combined with identified future cross-border climate impacts are used to stimulate a participatory co-production process to explore and evaluate different sets of adaptation options and activities. These future-oriented adaptation actions have the potential to improve Kenyan adaptation planning to mitigate and adapt to future climate impacts generated from global flows.

通常在严格定义的部门范围内或在特定的行政范围内，例如在国家适应计划中，已经在识别和评估气候变化影响方面付出了巨大的努力。现在，决策者和研究人员越来越有兴趣更好地了解气候影响从一个地点到另一个地点的传播。传统上，影响，适应性和脆弱性研究没有考虑到此类气候影响，但最近的一些国家级范围研究已经认识到跨境气候影响的潜在重要性。但是，这些研究缺乏明确的期货前景，并且隐含地假设了评估跨境气候影响的静态条件。

本文通过使用全球共享的社会经济途径（SSP）开发基于情景的框架来研究未来的跨境气候影响，从而解决了这一研究空白。我们应用此框架评估肯尼亚未来的跨境气候影响。我们通过自上而下和自下而上的组合方法，通过与本地利益相关者共同制作的过程来开发“扩展的SSP”。我们方法的自下而上要素由当地驱动因素组成，以理解肯尼亚对未来跨境气候影响的脆弱性，而自上而下要素则由作为共同边界条件的全球SSP构成。最后，将扩展的国家战略计划与已确定的未来跨境气候影响相结合，用于激发参与性共同生产过程，以探索和评估不同的适应方案和活动。这些面向未来的适应行动有可能改善肯尼亚的适应计划，以减轻和适应全球流动产生的未来气候影响。