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Tsunami preparedness and resilience in the Cascadia Subduction Zone: A multistage model of expected evacuation decisions and mode choice
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction ( IF 5 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-16 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102244
Chen Chen , Michael K. Lindell , Haizhong Wang

Physical scientists have estimated that the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) has as much as a 25% chance to produce a M9.0 earthquake and tsunami in the next 50 years, but few studies have used survey data to assess household risk perceptions, emergency preparedness, and evacuation intentions. To understand these phenomena, this study conducted a mail-based household questionnaire using the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) as a guide to collect 483 responses from two coastal communities in the CSZ: Crescent City, CA and Coos Bay, OR. We applied multistage regression models to assess the effects of critical PADM variables. The results showed that three psychological variables (risk perception, perceived hazard knowledge, and evacuation mode efficacy) were associated with some demographic variables and experience variables. Evacuation intention and evacuation mode choice are associated with those psychological variables but not with demographic variables. Contrary to previous studies, location and experience had no direct impact on evacuation intention or mode choice. We also analyzed expected evacuation mode compliance and the potential of using micro-mobility during tsunami response. This study provides empirical evidence of tsunami preparedness and intentions to support interdisciplinary evacuation modeling, tsunami hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.



中文翻译:

卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带的海啸防范和复原力:预计疏散决策和模式选择的多阶段模型

物理科学家估计,卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带(CSZ)在未来50年内有高达25%的机会发生M9.0级地震和海啸,但很少有研究使用调查数据来评估家庭风险感知,应急准备以及疏散意图。为了理解这些现象,本研究以保护行动决策模型(PADM)为指导,进行了基于邮件的家庭问卷调查,以收集来自CSZ的两个沿海社区(加利福尼亚州新月市和俄勒冈州库斯湾)的483条回应。我们应用了多阶段回归模型来评估关键PADM变量的影响。结果表明,三个心理变量(风险感知,感知的危险知识和疏散模式功效)与一些人口统计学变量和经验变量相关。疏散意图和疏散方式选择与这些心理变量相关,而与人口统计学变量无关。与以前的研究相反,位置和经验对疏散意图或模式选择没有直接影响。我们还分析了预期的疏散模式合规性以及在海啸应对期间使用微动的潜力。这项研究提供了海啸防范的经验证据,并旨在支持跨学科疏散模型,海啸危害教育,社区防灾和复原力计划。我们还分析了预期的疏散模式合规性以及在海啸应对期间使用微动的潜力。这项研究提供了海啸防范的经验证据,并旨在支持跨学科疏散模型,海啸危害教育,社区防灾和复原力计划。我们还分析了预期的疏散模式合规性以及在海啸应对期间使用微动的潜力。这项研究提供了海啸防范的经验证据,并旨在支持跨学科疏散模型,海啸危害教育,社区防灾和复原力计划。

更新日期:2021-04-26
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