ABSTRACT

Climate change has emerged as a growing threat to the European economy, whose economic losses are relevant for global growth. Rising temperatures and worsening extreme events are expected to affect climate-vulnerable sectors. Due to the economic integration within the European Union (EU), these impacts will likely have spillover effects and feedback loops to and from other regions. This study uses spatial econometrics to account for the interdependencies between the subnational EU regions to estimate the future impacts of changes in temperature on sectoral labour productivity under the Paris Agreement. The study confirms the presence of spatial spillover effects of climate change, and finds that observations at the economy-wide level of a non-linear, concave and single-peaked relationship between temperature and productivity do not always hold true at the sectoral level.

摘要

气候变化已成为对欧洲经济日益增长的威胁，其经济损失与全球增长相关。气温上升和极端事件恶化预计将影响气候脆弱部门。由于欧盟 (EU) 内部的经济一体化，这些影响可能会产生溢出效应和往返于其他地区的反馈循环。本研究使用空间计量经济学来解释次国家级欧盟区域之间的相互依赖关系，以估计温度变化对《巴黎协定》下部门劳动生产率的未来影响。该研究证实了气候变化的空间溢出效应的存在，并发现在经济范围内的非线性观察，