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Large Current Account Deficits and Neglected Vulnerabilities
IMF Economic Review ( IF 2.489 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-16 , DOI: 10.1057/s41308-021-00137-5
José Daniel Aromí

Using a sample covering 50 advanced and emerging economies over 1990–2017, it is found that large current account deficits are followed by systematic negative surprises in economic growth. This regularity is verified both in the case of advanced economies and emerging economies. In addition, large current account deficits are reversed significantly faster than what forecasters anticipate and are followed by low asset returns and drops in sentiment. The findings are robust to changes in the specification and do not seem to be explained by efficient learning dynamics. This evidence indicates that analysts are unable to incorporate the negative information transmitted by large current account deficits and has implications for the understanding of past economic events and for the design of macro-prudential policies.



中文翻译:

经常账户赤字大且漏洞被忽略

使用涵盖1990-2017年间50个发达和新兴经济体的样本,发现经常账户赤字过大之后,经济增长出现系统性的负面意外。发达经济体和新兴经济体均证实了这种规律性。此外,大笔经常账户赤字的逆转速度大大快于预测人员的预期,其次是低资产收益率和情绪下降。这些发现对于规范的更改是可靠的,并且似乎不能通过有效的学习动态来解释。该证据表明,分析师无法整合因经常账户赤字而产生的负面信息,对理解过去的经济事件和宏观审慎政策具有影响。

更新日期:2021-04-16
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