Decision rules provide an intuitive framework for water resources planning. Having adopted a rule‐based plan, decision makers can monitor critical variables to trigger timely adaptation actions when the variables pass their predetermined thresholds. However, establishing a strategy that is comprised of a set of decision rules raises methodological challenges: (i) to identify observable indicators that provide reliable information about current and future change, (ii) to choose suitable statistics to characterize nonstationary time series that are germane to system performance, and (iii) to optimize threshold levels that trigger interventions. We propose a methodology that addresses these methodological challenges whilst explicitly balancing expected risks of water shortages with the costs of intervention in the water supply system. The four‐step framework uses a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm to search for and to identify the combinations of indicator‐informed decision rules that govern if, when, and what supply options should be included in the water resource system. The rule‐based strategies are dynamically tested against an extensive ensemble of future climate and demand scenarios to examine the trade‐offs between strategy cost and level of service. The framework is applied to the London water system (England) using regional climate simulations to identify strategic rules for a 60‐year planning period. The results demonstrate the utility of the framework, identifying observable indicators and decision thresholds that are used in optimal rule‐based planning strategies. In key areas of the solution space, rule‐based strategies reduce expected restriction costs on average by 13.1%, and as much as 24.1%, for a given intervention cost.

中文翻译：

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长期水资源规划中的指标选择与优化决策规则

决策规则为水资源规划提供了直观的框架。通过基于规则的计划后，决策者可以监视关键变量，以在变量超过其预定阈值时及时采取适应措施。但是，建立由一组决策规则组成的策略会带来方法上的挑战：（i）识别可观察的指标，以提供有关当前和未来变化的可靠信息；（ii）选择合适的统计数据来表征与时间相关的非平稳时间序列系统性能，以及（iii）优化触发干预的阈值水平。我们提出了一种解决这些方法挑战的方法，同时明确平衡了水资源短缺的预期风险和供水系统的干预成本。该四步框架使用多目标进化算法来搜索和识别指示水信息的决策规则的组合，这些规则决定了是否应在水资源系统中包括何时，什么时间以及什么供应方式。针对未来气候和需求情景的广泛集成对基于规则的策略进行了动态测试，以检查策略成本与服务水平之间的权衡。该框架通过区域气候模拟应用于伦敦供水系统（英格兰），以识别60年规划期的战略规则。结果证明了该框架的实用性，确定了在基于规则的最佳计划策略中使用的可观察指标和决策阈值。在解决方案领域的关键领域，