Tree ferns are common elements in the Atlantic Forest domain, sometimes reaching more than half of total dominance at forest sites. Just as in most groups, climate change might impact the distribution and diversity of tree ferns. To investigate the extent of these impacts in the subtropical Atlantic Rainforest, we measured the changes in species distribution, α- and β-diversity between current climate and future climatic scenarios for 2050. Most tree ferns species tend to have their area reduced. Hence, species richness tends to decrease in the future, especially in the Rainforest sites. In general, β-diversity tend to not change on the regional scale, but some sites can have their relative singularity in composition affected. Protected Areas (PAs) in subtropical Atlantic Forest harbor more α-diversity than sites outside PAs — the same applies to β-diversity. Our study offers new insights on the effects of climate change in tree ferns by integrating the evaluation of its impacts on distribution, α-, and β-diversity in all study areas and inside PAs.

树蕨是大西洋森林领域的常见元素，有时在森林地区占总优势的一半以上。正如在大多数群体中一样，气候变化可能会影响树蕨的分布和多样性。为了调查这些影响在亚热带大西洋雨林中的程度，我们测量了物种分布的变化、当前气候与 2050 年未来气候情景之间的 α 和 β 多样性。大多数树蕨物种的面积往往会减少。因此，物种丰富度在未来趋于减少，尤其是在热带雨林地区。一般来说，β-多样性在区域尺度上不会发生变化，但一些站点的相对奇异性会受到影响。亚热带大西洋森林中的保护区 (PA) 比 PA 以外的地点拥有更多的 α 多样性——这同样适用于 β 多样性。我们的研究通过综合评估气候变化对所有研究区域和保护区内的分布、α-和β-多样性的影响，提供了关于气候变化对树蕨的影响的新见解。