The move towards broader management of marine ecosystems has received significant momentum in recent years. Fundamental to Ecosystem-Based Management (EBM) and Ecosystem-Based Fisheries management (EBFM) is the need to engage relevant stakeholder groups. Here we present a Bayesian network (BN) tool developed to describe the snapper population in the Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand, and investigate possible outcomes of alternative management scenarios on snapper abundance. The Hauraki Gulf is a location where the marine environment is both highly valued and in high demand for the goods and services it provides. Snapper are a key component of this social–ecological system. We developed a BN focussed on key snapper life stages, and the consequences of stressors, including fishing, uses of marine space, land use practises (which influence sediment and nutrient yield), biogenic and environmental habitat variables, and upper level drivers such as climate change, human population growth and the global economy. Parameters were populated through a range of information types, from empirical and model analysis to literature review and expert opinion. Parameters for the core of the BN model (i.e. the snapper life stages and fishing methods) were adjusted so that the predicted effects of fishing reflected those seen in model projections from an age structured population model that had recently been used to inform the management of the snapper population in the Hauraki Gulf. The two most influential factors within this BN were fishing and land–use practises. Although there was a strong impact on snapper populations from land–use practises and resulting sedimentation that detrimentally affects biogenic habitats that juvenile snapper depend on, the potential impact of fishery extraction was much stronger. While fishery extraction of snapper is generally well managed, under the existing management set up it is also the only major stressor that would likely be regulated in response to decreases in the snapper population (regardless of the source of any impact). Engaging stakeholders to address issues such as this remains the greatest challenge facing EBFM/EBM in the Hauraki Gulf, but may be possible with tools such as the BN presented here.

近年来，朝着更广泛地管理海洋生态系统的方向发展势头强劲。基于生态系统的管理（EBM）和基于生态系统的渔业管理（EBFM）的基础是需要让相关的利益相关者团体参与进来。在这里，我们介绍一种贝叶斯网络（BN）工具，该工具开发用于描述新西兰豪拉基湾的鲷鱼种群，并研究鲷鱼丰度的替代管理方案的可能结果。豪拉基湾（Hauraki Gulf）是一个海洋环境受到高度重视并对其提供的商品和服务有很高需求的地方。鲷鱼是这种社会生态系统的关键组成部分。我们开发了BN，重点关注鲷鱼的主要生活阶段，以及压力源的后果，包括捕鱼，海洋空间的使用，土地使用方式（影响沉积物和养分的产生），生物和环境生境变量以及高层驱动因素，例如气候变化，人口增长和全球经济。通过经验和模型分析到文献综述和专家意见等一系列信息类型来填充参数。调整了BN模型核心的参数（即鲷鱼的生活阶段和捕捞方法），以使捕捞的预期效果反映在年龄结构化人口模型的模型预测中所看到的效果，该模型最近已用于管理捕捞活动豪拉基湾的鲷鱼种群。国阵内两个最有影响力的因素是捕鱼和土地使用惯例。尽管土地使用做法对鲷鱼种群产生了巨大影响，其沉积物对少年鲷鱼所依赖的生物栖息地产生了不利影响，但渔业捕捞的潜在影响要大得多。虽然对鲷鱼的渔业捕捞通常得到了很好的管理，但在现有的管理体制下，它也是唯一的主要压力源，可能会因鲷鱼种群的减少而受到调节（无论影响的来源如何）。让利益相关者参与解决此类问题仍然是豪拉基湾EBFM / EBM面临的最大挑战，但使用此处提供的BN之类的工具可能是可行的。虽然对鲷鱼的渔业捕捞通常得到了很好的管理，但在现有的管理体制下，它也是唯一的主要压力源，可能会因鲷鱼种群的减少而受到调节（无论影响的来源如何）。让利益相关者参与解决此类问题仍然是豪拉基湾EBFM / EBM面临的最大挑战，但使用此处提供的BN之类的工具可能是可行的。虽然对鲷鱼的渔业捕捞通常得到了很好的管理，但在现有的管理体制下，它也是唯一的主要压力源，可能会因鲷鱼种群的减少而受到调节（无论影响的来源如何）。让利益相关者参与解决此类问题仍然是豪拉基湾EBFM / EBM面临的最大挑战，但使用此处提供的BN之类的工具可能是可行的。