Objective: We estimated the correlations between the “pathways” chosen by community college students—in terms of desired credentials and fields of study, as well as other choices and outcomes along the paths—and the attainment of credentials with labor market value. We focused on the extent to which there were recorded changes in students’ choices over time, whether students made choices informed by their chances of success and by labor market value of credentials, and the impacts of choices on outcomes. Method: Using micro-longitudinal administrative data on a full cohort of Kentucky community college students, we provide summary data on a range of pathway characteristics and outcomes, as well as binomial and multinomial logit estimates of how pathway characteristics affect the odds of completing different kinds of credentials. Some of the logit estimates were based on random or fixed effects models. Results: We found that several characteristics of chosen pathways, such as field of study and desired credential as well as early “momentum,” affected outcomes. Student choices of pathways—and especially differences by gender and academic readiness—sometimes ran strongly counter to information about later chances of success in terms of probabilities of completing programs and attaining strong earnings. Students also changed pathways quite frequently, making it harder to accumulate the credits needed in their fields. Contributions: Attainment of credentials with greater market value by community college students could likely be improved by appropriate guidance and supports for them along the way and perhaps by broader institutional changes as well.

目的：我们根据期望的学历和研究领域以及沿途的其他选择和结果，估计了社区大学生选择的“途径”与获得具有劳动力市场价值的学历之间的相关性。我们关注的是学生的选择随时间变化的程度，学生是否根据成功的机会和证书的劳动力市场价值以及选择对结果的影响做出选择。方法：使用整个肯塔基州社区大学生群体的微纵向行政数据，我们提供有关一系列途径特征和结果的汇总数据，以及关于途径特征如何影响完成不同种类证书的几率的二项和多项式logit估计。一些logit估计基于随机或固定效应模型。结果：我们发现，所选途径的一些特征（例如研究领域和所需的证书以及早期的“动量”）会影响结果。学生选择的途径，尤其是性别和学业上的差异，有时会与完成课程和获得丰厚收益的可能性方面的关于以后成功机会的信息强烈相反。学生们也经常改变自己的道路，这使得他们很难积累自己领域内所需要的学分。贡献：在此过程中，通过适当的指导和支持，以及可能通过更广泛的机构改革，社区大学生获得具有更高市场价值的证书的可能性也可能得到改善。