ABSTRACT

Firms and individuals condition their investment choices on domestic political factors in host countries. Existing research describes how government preferences and policy choices influence investment behavior. Some have argued that investors take a cautious approach in response to possible government turnover. We argue that the results of domestic political competition also matter. Domestic turnover creates uncertainty about the future direction of policy in a variety of areas relevant to investment decisions – e.g., changes in privileged relationships between the state and certain domestic producers or industries, trade barriers, and tax policies. Investors and firms should therefore hesitate to invest following domestic turnover in potential host countries. However, various institutional features of democracies should mitigate the extent to which domestic turnover causes uncertainty and deters investment. Our statistical analysis suggests that while non-democracies see less foreign direct investment in the wake of a change in the source of leader support, investment to democracies does not change significantly following domestic turnover. The note enhances our understanding of the determinants of investment and provides further evidence that democratic institutions matter for conditioning the effects of domestic turnover in a new empirical domain.

摘要

公司和个人的投资选择取决于东道国的国内政治因素。现有研究描述了政府偏好和政策选择如何影响投资行为。一些人认为，投资者对可能出现的政府更替采取谨慎态度。我们认为国内政治竞争的结果也很重要。国内营业额给与投资决策相关的各个领域的未来政策方向带来不确定性——例如，国家与某些国内生产商或行业之间的特权关系的变化、贸易壁垒和税收政策。因此，投资者和公司应该在潜在东道国的国内营业额之后犹豫是否进行投资。然而，民主国家的各种制度特征应减轻国内营业额造成的不确定性和阻碍投资的程度。我们的统计分析表明，虽然非民主国家在领导人支持来源发生变化后看到的外国直接投资减少，但对民主国家的投资并没有随着国内更替而发生显着变化。该说明增强了我们对投资决定因素的理解，并提供了进一步的证据，证明民主制度对于在新的经验领域中调节国内营业额的影响很重要。对民主国家的投资不会随着国内更替而发生显着变化。该说明增强了我们对投资决定因素的理解，并提供了进一步的证据，证明民主制度对于在新的经验领域中调节国内营业额的影响很重要。对民主国家的投资不会随着国内更替而发生显着变化。该说明增强了我们对投资决定因素的理解，并提供了进一步的证据，证明民主制度对于在新的经验领域中调节国内营业额的影响很重要。