Emergency decision-making (EDM) is of paramount importance, especially when the emergency occurs. The evolution nature of the emergency, such as multistage, uncertainty, dynamic, and information updating, has been playing a key role in the dynamic emergency decision-making process. However, most existing studies ignored the aforementioned nature. Our approach accounts for the dynamics inherent to a real emergency decision-making process and presents a multistage dynamic emergency decision-making (MSDEDM) procedure of a dynamic programming model based on decision-makers’ psychological reference satisfactory degree. Firstly, interval-valued trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IVTrIFNs) are used to depict the relevant fuzziness and uncertainty of information. Secondly, by considering the dynamic evolution process of emergency and the decision-makers’ psychological reference expectation effect, the principle of MSDEDM approach is presented. Based on the analysis, the dynamic model on the new psychological reference satisfactory parameter formula is presented to obtain the optimal satisfaction and weight of each stage. Then, the value utility function based on the DMs’ risk attitude is proposed to obtain the comprehensive value of each emergency alternative for each stage and achieve the ranking results of each stage. Furthermore, a case study involving the transportation emergency decision-making problem demonstrates that the proposed method can achieve selection of the optimal alternatives for each stage, as well as adjustment of the alternatives for neighbouring stages. Finally, the comparative analysis and sensitivity analysis for the results are used to further verify the feasibility and practicability of the proposed method.

中文翻译：

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不确定性信息下考虑满意度的多阶段动态应急决策方法

紧急决策（EDM）至关重要，尤其是在发生紧急情况时。突发事件的演变性质，例如多阶段，不确定性，动态和信息更新，在动态突发事件的决策过程中一直发挥着关键作用。但是，大多数现有研究忽略了上述性质。我们的方法考虑了实际紧急决策过程所固有的动态，并提出了基于决策者的心理参考满意程度的动态规划模型的多阶段动态紧急决策（MSDEDM）程序。首先，使用区间值梯形直觉模糊数（IVTrIFN）来描述信息的相关模糊性和不确定性。第二，通过考虑突发事件的动态演化过程以及决策者的心理参考期望效果，提出了MSDEDM方法的原理。在此基础上，提出了基于新的心理参考满意参数公式的动力学模型，以求得每个阶段的最优满意度和权重。然后，提出了基于决策者风险态度的价值效用函数，以求得各阶段各应急方案的综合价值，并取得各阶段的排序结果。此外，一个涉及交通紧急决策问题的案例研究表明，所提出的方法可以实现每个阶段的最佳替代方案的选择，以及对相邻阶段的替代方案的调整。最后，