Electric heating is helpful in resolving air pollution, and also utilizes renewable energy power. However, the environmental benefits of electric heating are restrained by regional resources endowment and regional electrical energy structure. In the context of the active promotion of electric heating in Beijing—Tianjin–Hebei, the paper studied the development potential and limits of wind power electric heating under the constraints of environmental effects to provide reference for the orderly development of electric heating. A model to predict the capacity of the installed wind power improved by the fruit fly optimized ELM (Extreme Learning Machine) algorithm and an electric heating environment effect calculation model are constructed. The optimal value and critical value of the newly added heating area in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei are obtained through calculation under four scenarios of wind abandonment rate. As the wind abandonment rate increases from 4–10% (with interval of 2%), the optimal value of the newly added electric heating area in Beijing—Tianjin–Hebei will be 19.15, 29.47, 36.26, and 47.90 million m² by the year 2030. Additionally, as the utilization rate of thermal power exceeds 41.16%, electric heating will produce more carbon emissions compared to coal-fired heating. Therefore, if we want to develop electric heating on a large scale, we need to control the proportion of thermal power in the power supply structure and increase the proportion of new energy. This study can be used as theoretical reference to the development programme of electric energy substitution in the future. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

中文翻译：

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碳减排下京津冀新增风电供热发展潜力研究

电加热有助于解决空气污染，还利用了可再生能源。然而，电供热的环境效益受到区域资源禀赋和区域电能结构的制约。在京津冀积极推广电采暖的背景下，研究了环境效应约束下风电电采暖的发展潜力和局限性，为电采暖的有序发展提供参考。构建了基于果蝇优化ELM（极限学习机）算法改进的风电装机容量预测模型和电热环境效应计算模型。通过4种弃风率情景计算得出京津冀新增供热区的最优值和临界值。随着弃风率从4%~10%（间隔2%）增加，京津冀新增电热区最优值分别为19.15、29.47、36.26、4790万平方米²到2030年。另外，由于火电利用率超过41.16%，电供暖将比燃煤供暖产生更多的碳排放。因此，要大规模发展电采暖，需要控制火电在电源结构中的比重，增加新能源的比重。本研究可为今后电能替代发展规划提供理论参考。© 2021 化学工业协会和 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.