Preventing the secondary formation of natural gas hydrates is one of the key factors for the success of offshore natural gas hydrates production test. In this paper, according to the operational process of preventing the secondary formation of natural gas hydrates, the GO method model of the offshore natural gas hydrates depressurization production test process was established by using the DBN and the GO (DBN-GO) model, and it was mapped into the DBN model. Considering the influence of human factors in the operation process, the human reliability was modeled and analyzed by using combined weight method and fuzzy CREAM. In this paper, the performance of the equipment, operational risk and probability of hydrate secondary formation were analyzed. And the DBN model is verified by Petri net.

防止天然气水合物的二次形成是海上天然气水合物生产试验成功的关键因素之一。本文针对防止天然气水合物二次生成的操作过程，利用DBN和GO（DBN-GO）模型建立了海上天然气水合物降压生产试验过程的GO方法模型，它被映射到DBN模型中。考虑到人为因素在操作过程中的影响，采用组合权重法和模糊CREAM对人的可靠性进行建模和分析。本文分析了设备的性能，操作风险和水合物二次生成的可能性。并通过Petri网对DBN模型进行了验证。