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School closures reduced social mixing of children during COVID-19 with implications for transmission risk and school reopening policies
Journal of The Royal Society Interface ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-14 , DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2020.0970
Jennifer R Head 1 , Kristin L Andrejko 1 , Qu Cheng 2 , Philip A Collender 2 , Sophie Phillips 3 , Anna Boser 3 , Alexandra K Heaney 2 , Christopher M Hoover 2 , Sean L Wu 1 , Graham R Northrup 4 , Karen Click 1 , Naomi S Bardach 5 , Joseph A Lewnard 1, 4, 6 , Justin V Remais 3
Affiliation  

School closures may reduce the size of social networks among children, potentially limiting infectious disease transmission. To estimate the impact of K–12 closures and reopening policies on children's social interactions and COVID-19 incidence in California's Bay Area, we collected data on children's social contacts and assessed implications for transmission using an individual-based model. Elementary and Hispanic children had more contacts during closures than high school and non-Hispanic children, respectively. We estimated that spring 2020 closures of elementary schools averted 2167 cases in the Bay Area (95% CI: −985, 5572), fewer than middle (5884; 95% CI: 1478, 11.550), high school (8650; 95% CI: 3054, 15 940) and workplace (15 813; 95% CI: 9963, 22 617) closures. Under assumptions of moderate community transmission, we estimated that reopening for a four-month semester without any precautions will increase symptomatic illness among high school teachers (an additional 40.7% expected to experience symptomatic infection, 95% CI: 1.9, 61.1), middle school teachers (37.2%, 95% CI: 4.6, 58.1) and elementary school teachers (4.1%, 95% CI: −1.7, 12.0). However, we found that reopening policies for elementary schools that combine universal masking with classroom cohorts could result in few within-school transmissions, while high schools may require masking plus a staggered hybrid schedule. Stronger community interventions (e.g. remote work, social distancing) decreased the risk of within-school transmission across all measures studied, with the influence of community transmission minimized as the effectiveness of the within-school measures increased.



中文翻译:

在 COVID-19 期间,学校停课减少了儿童的社会融合,这对传播风险和学校重新开放政策产生了影响

学校停课可能会减少儿童之间社交网络的规模,从而可能限制传染病的传播。为了估计 K-12 关闭和重新开放政策对加利福尼亚湾区儿童社交互动和 COVID-19 发病率的影响,我们收集了有关儿童社交接触的数据,并使用基于个体的模型评估了传播的影响。在关闭期间,小学生和西班牙裔儿童的接触次数分别比高中和非西班牙裔儿童更多。我们估计,2020 年春季关闭小学在湾区避免了 2167 例病例(95% CI:-985、5572),低于中学(5884;95% CI:1478、11.550)、高中(8650;95% CI) : 3054, 15 940) 和工作场所 (15 813; 95% CI: 9963, 22 617) 关闭。在适度社区传播的假设下,我们估计,在没有任何预防措施的情况下重新开学四个月的学期将增加高中教师(预计会出现症状感染的额外 40.7%,95% CI:1.9, 61.1)、中学教师(37.2%, 95% CI: 4.6, 58.1) 和小学教师 (4.1%, 95% CI: -1.7, 12.0)。但是,我们发现,将通用掩蔽与课堂群组相结合的小学重新开放政策可能会导致很少的校内传播,而高中可能需要掩蔽以及错开的混合时间表。在所研究的所有措施中,更强有力的社区干预(例如远程工作、社交距离)降低了校内传播的风险,随着校内措施有效性的提高,社区传播的影响最小化。

更新日期:2021-04-14
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