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Impact of climate change on Spanish electricity demand
Climatic Change ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-14 , DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03086-0
Jose M. Garrido-Perez , David Barriopedro , Ricardo García-Herrera , Carlos Ordóñez

This paper evaluates the influence that climate change could exert on electricity demand patterns in Spain conditioned on the level of warming, with special attention to the seasonal occurrence of extreme demand days. For this purpose, assuming the currently observed electricity demand–temperature relationship holds in the future, we have generated daily time series of pseudo-electricity demand for the recent past and the twenty-first century by using simulated temperatures from statistical downscaling of global climate model experiments. We show that both the frequency and severity of extreme electricity demand days at the national level are expected to increase, even for low levels of regional warming. Moreover, the occurrence of these extremes will experience a seasonal shift from winter to summer due to the projected temperature increases in both seasons. Under a RCP8.5 scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, the extended summer season (June–September) will concentrate more than 50% of extreme electricity demand days by the mid-century, increasing to 90% before the end of the century. These changes in electricity demand have considerable spatial heterogeneity over the country, with northwestern Spain experiencing the seasonal shift later than the rest of the country, due to the relatively mild summer temperatures and lower projected warming there.



中文翻译:

气候变化对西班牙电力需求的影响

本文评估了气候变化可能对西班牙在电力变暖水平下的电力需求模式的影响,并特别注意了极端需求日的季节性发生。为此,假设当前观察到的电力需求与温度之间的关系在未来保持不变,我们使用全球气候模型的统计降尺度中的模拟温度,生成了最近的过去和二十一世纪的每日伪电力需求的时间序列。实验。我们表明,即使在区域升温水平较低的情况下,预计全国范围内极端用电天数的频率和严重性也会增加。而且,由于两个季节的预计温度升高,这些极端事件的发生将从冬季到夏季发生季节性变化。在RCP8.5温室气体排放情景下,到本世纪中叶,延长的夏季(6月至9月)将集中超过50%的极端电力需求日,到本世纪末将增加到90%。电力需求的这些变化在全国范围内具有很大的空间异质性,西班牙西北部的季节性变化要晚于西班牙其他地区,这是由于夏季气温相对较低以及预计的升温幅度较小。在本世纪末之前增加到90%。电力需求的这些变化在全国范围内具有很大的空间异质性,西班牙西北部的季节性变化要晚于西班牙其他地区,这是由于夏季气温相对较低以及预计的升温幅度较小。在本世纪末之前增加到90%。电力需求的这些变化在全国范围内具有很大的空间异质性,西班牙西北部的季节性变化要晚于西班牙其他地区,这是由于夏季气温相对较低以及预计的升温幅度较小。

更新日期:2021-04-14
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