The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we present a model in which both income and income inequality are jointly determined in a counter-cyclical manner via self-fulfilling expectation. We argue that multiple equilibria can arise in the presence of inelastic labor demand, a minimum investment requirement, and imperfections in the credit market. In one equilibrium, the market wage and labor income are both low. Young agents who become entrepreneurs work harder and save more than young agents who become depositors. As a result, the equilibrium is characterized by low-income and high-income inequality. In another equilibrium, the market wage and labor income are both high. Young agents supply the same amount of labor and save the same. As a result, the equilibrium is characterized by high-income and low-income inequality. Secondly, we present different dynamic scenarios predicted by the model and analyze the role of self-fulfilling expectations. The paper ends by providing some policy recommendations on how the coordination of agents’ expectations about labor market conditions and how improvements in financial development may affect the long-run income and income inequality.

本文的目的是双重的。首先，我们提出一个模型，其中通过自我实现的期望以反周期的方式共同确定收入和收入不平等。我们认为，在劳动力需求缺乏弹性，最低投资要求和信贷市场不完善的情况下，可能会出现多重均衡。在一个均衡中，市场工资和劳动收入都较低。成为企业家的年轻经纪人比成为存款人的年轻经纪人更加努力，储蓄更多。结果，均衡的特征是低收入和高收入不平等。在另一个均衡中，市场工资和劳动收入都很高。年轻的特工提供相同数量的劳动力并节省相同的劳动力。结果，均衡的特征是高收入和低收入不平等。第二，我们介绍了该模型预测的不同动态方案，并分析了自我实现期望的作用。本文最后提供了一些政策建议，内容涉及如何协调代理人对劳动力市场状况的期望以及金融发展的改善如何影响长期收入和收入不平等。