Alaska’s North Slope is predicted to experience twice the warming expected globally. When summers are longer and winters are shortened, ground surface conditions in the Arctic are expected to change considerably. This is significant for Arctic Alaska, a region that supports surface infrastructure such as energy extraction and transport assets (pipelines), buildings, roadways, and bridges. Climatic change at the ground surface has been shown to impact soil layers beneath through the harmonic fluctuation of the active layer, and warmer air temperature can result in progressive permafrost thaw, leading to a deeper active layer. This study attempts to assess climate change based on the climate model data from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and its impact on a permafrost environment in Northern Alaska. The predicted air temperature data are analyzed to evaluate how the freezing and thawing indices will change due to climate warming. A thermal model was developed that incorporated a ground surface condition defined by either undisturbed intact tundra or a gravel fill surface and applied climate model predicted air temperatures. Results indicate similar fluctuation in active layer thickness and values that fall within the range of minimum and maximum readings for the last quarter-century. It is found that the active layer thickness increases, with the amount depending on climate model predictions and ground surface conditions. These variations in active layer thickness are then analyzed by considering the near-surface frozen soil ice content. Analysis of results indicates that thaw strain is most significant in the near-surface layers, indicating that settlement would be concurrent with annual thaw penetration. Moreover, ice content is a major factor in the settlement prediction. This assessment methodology, after improvement, and the results can help enhance the resilience of the existing and future new infrastructure in a changing Arctic environment.

中文翻译：

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考虑阿拉斯加北部长期气候影响的多年冻土融化和地面沉降

预计阿拉斯加的北坡将经历全球变暖预期的两倍。当夏天更长，冬天缩短时，预计北极的地表条件会发生很大变化。这对北极阿拉斯加来说意义重大，北极地区支持地面基础设施，例如能源开采和运输资产（管道），建筑物，道路和桥梁。研究表明，地面上的气候变化会通过活性层的谐波波动影响下方的土壤层，而较高的气温会导致永久冻土融化，从而导致活性层更深。这项研究试图基于耦合模型比较项目第五阶段的气候模型数据及其对阿拉斯加北部多年冻土环境的影响来评估气候变化。分析预测的气温数据，以评估由于气候变暖而导致的冻融指数如何变化。开发了一个热模型，该模型结合了由未受干扰的完整苔原或砾石填充表面所定义的地表条件，并应用了气候模型预测的气温。结果表明，活性层​​厚度和数值的波动类似，均落在最近四分之一世纪的最小和最大读数范围内。发现活动层厚度增加，该厚度取决于气候模型预测和地面条件。然后，通过考虑近地表冻结土壤冰含量来分析活性层厚度的这些变化。结果分析表明，解冻应变在近表层最为明显，表示沉降将与每年的融化渗透同时进行。此外，冰含量是沉降预测的主要因素。经过改进的评估方法和评估结果可以帮助增强不断变化的北极环境中现有和未来新基础设施的弹性。