We estimate total returns to rental housing by studying over 170,000 hand-collected archival observations of prices and rents for individual houses in Paris (1809–1943) and Amsterdam (1900–1979). The annualized real total return, net of costs and taxes, is 4.0% for Paris and 4.8% for Amsterdam and entirely comes from rental yields. Our returns weakly correlate with the implied returns in Jordà et al. (2019) and are substantially lower. We decompose total return risk at the individual asset level and find that yield risk becomes an increasingly important component of property-level risk for longer investment horizons.

中文翻译：

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住宅房地产的总回报和风险

我们通过研究超过 170,000 份手工收集的关于巴黎（1809-1943 年）和阿姆斯特丹（1900-1979 年）个别房屋价格和租金的档案观察来估计出租房屋的总回报。扣除成本和税收后的年化实际总回报率为巴黎的 4.0% 和阿姆斯特丹的 4.8%，完全来自租金收益率。我们的回报与 Jordà 等人的隐含回报微弱相关。（2019）并且大大降低。我们在单个资产层面分解总回报风险，发现收益风险在较长投资期限内成为房地产层面风险的一个越来越重要的组成部分。