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Dynamic larval dispersal can mediate the response of marine metapopulations to multiple climate change impacts
Oikos ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-12 , DOI: 10.1111/oik.07760 Ridouan Bani 1 , Justin Marleau 1 , Marie‐Josée Fortin 2 , Rémi M. Daigle 3, 4 , Frédéric Guichard 1
Oikos ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-12 , DOI: 10.1111/oik.07760 Ridouan Bani 1 , Justin Marleau 1 , Marie‐Josée Fortin 2 , Rémi M. Daigle 3, 4 , Frédéric Guichard 1
Affiliation
Climate change is having multiple impacts on marine species characterized by sedentary adult and pelagic larval phases, from increasing adult mortality to changes in larval duration and ocean currents. Recent studies have shown impacts of climate change on species persistence through direct effects on individual survival and development, but few have considered the indirect effects mediated by ocean currents and species traits such as pelagic larval duration. We used a density-dependent and stochastic metapopulation model to predict how changes in adult mortality and dynamic connectivity can affect marine metapopulation stability. We analyzed our model with connectivity data simulated from a biophysical ocean model of the northeast Pacific coast forced under current (1998–2007) and future (2068–2077) climate scenarios in combination with scenarios of increasing adult mortality and decreasing larval duration. Our results predict that changes of ocean currents and larval duration mediated by climate change interact in complex and opposing directions to shape local mortality and metapopulation connectivity with synergistic effects on regional metapopulation stability: while species with short larval duration are most sensitive to temperature-driven reduction in larval duration, the response of species with longer larval duration are mostly mediated by changes in both the mean and variance of larval connectivity driven by ocean currents. Our results emphasize the importance of considering the spatiotemporal structure of connectivity in order to predict how the multiple effects of climate change will impact marine populations.
中文翻译:
动态幼虫扩散可以调节海洋复合种群对多种气候变化影响的反应
气候变化对以定居成体和远洋幼体阶段为特征的海洋物种产生多重影响,从成体死亡率增加到幼体持续时间和洋流的变化。最近的研究表明气候变化通过对个体生存和发展的直接影响对物种持久性产生影响,但很少有人考虑由洋流和物种特征(如远洋幼虫持续时间)介导的间接影响。我们使用密度依赖和随机的种群模型来预测成年死亡率和动态连通性的变化如何影响海洋种群稳定性。我们使用来自东北太平洋海岸生物物理海洋模型模拟的连通性数据分析了我们的模型,该模型在当前(1998-2007)和未来(2068-2077)气候情景下,结合成虫死亡率增加和幼虫持续时间减少的情景。我们的结果预测,由气候变化介导的洋流和幼虫持续时间的变化以复杂且相反的方向相互作用,以形成局部死亡率和复合种群连接性,对区域复合种群稳定性产生协同效应:而幼虫持续时间短的物种对温度驱动的减少最敏感在幼虫持续时间中,幼虫持续时间较长的物种的反应主要由洋流驱动的幼虫连通性的均值和方差的变化介导。
更新日期:2021-06-01
中文翻译:
动态幼虫扩散可以调节海洋复合种群对多种气候变化影响的反应
气候变化对以定居成体和远洋幼体阶段为特征的海洋物种产生多重影响,从成体死亡率增加到幼体持续时间和洋流的变化。最近的研究表明气候变化通过对个体生存和发展的直接影响对物种持久性产生影响,但很少有人考虑由洋流和物种特征(如远洋幼虫持续时间)介导的间接影响。我们使用密度依赖和随机的种群模型来预测成年死亡率和动态连通性的变化如何影响海洋种群稳定性。我们使用来自东北太平洋海岸生物物理海洋模型模拟的连通性数据分析了我们的模型,该模型在当前(1998-2007)和未来(2068-2077)气候情景下,结合成虫死亡率增加和幼虫持续时间减少的情景。我们的结果预测,由气候变化介导的洋流和幼虫持续时间的变化以复杂且相反的方向相互作用,以形成局部死亡率和复合种群连接性,对区域复合种群稳定性产生协同效应:而幼虫持续时间短的物种对温度驱动的减少最敏感在幼虫持续时间中,幼虫持续时间较长的物种的反应主要由洋流驱动的幼虫连通性的均值和方差的变化介导。