ABSTRACT

We study the administrative behaviour of a sample of Italian municipalities dismissed by the Government because of mafia infiltrations, looking at their balance-sheet data. Using linear discriminant analysis and logistic regressions, we put forward two statistical indicators of the probability that a mafia infiltrated a city council. Our results characterize the administrative profile of infiltrated municipalities. We obtain non-obvious results concerning their i) high levels of arrears, both of tax collections and payments; ii) low levels of indebtness; and iii) low levels of capital expenditures, especially for public works.

中文翻译：

---

意大利各城市的黑手党渗透情况：两个统计指标

摘要

我们研究了因黑手党渗透而被政府解散的意大利市政当局的样本的行政行为，并研究了它们的资产负债表数据。使用线性判别分析和逻辑回归，我们提出了黑手党渗透到市议会的可能性的两个统计指标。我们的研究结果体现了所渗透市政当局的行政特征。我们获得了关于它们的非显而易见的结果。ii）债务水平低；iii）资本支出水平低，尤其是公共工程。