This paper explores the predictability of a Bak–Tang–Wiesenfeld isotropic sandpile on a self-similar lattice, introducing an algorithm which predicts the occurrence of target events when the stress in the system crosses a critical level. The model exhibits the self-organized critical dynamics characterized by the power-law segment of the size-frequency event distribution extended up to the sizes \(\sim L^{\beta }\), \(\beta = \log _3 5\), where L is the lattice length. We establish numerically that there are large events which are observed only in a super-critical state and, therefore, predicted efficiently. Their sizes fill in the interval with the left endpoint scaled as \(L^{\alpha }\) and located to the right from the power-law segment: \(\alpha \approx 2.24 > \beta \). The right endpoint scaled as \(L^3\) represents the largest event in the model. The mechanism of predictability observed with isotropic sandpiles is shown here for the first time.

本文探讨了自相似晶格上Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld各向同性沙堆的可预测性，并介绍了一种预测系统中的应力超过临界水平时目标事件发生的算法。该模型展示了自组织的临界动力学，其特征在于大小-频率事件分布的幂律部分扩展到大小\（\ sim L ^ {\ beta} \），\（\ beta = \ log _3 5 \），其中L是晶格长度。我们通过数值确定存在仅在超临界状态下才能观察到的大事件，因此可以有效地进行预测。它们的大小填充间隔，左端点缩放为\（L ^ {\ alpha} \）并位于幂律段的右侧：\（\ alpha \ approx 2.24> \ beta \）。缩放为\（L ^ 3 \）的右端点表示模型中最大的事件。首次显示了各向同性沙堆观测到的可预测性机制。