Purpose

As of January 1, 2020, the upper limit of sulfur emissions outside emission control areas decreased from 3.5% to 0.5%. This paper aims to present some of the challenges associated with the implementation of the sulfur cap and investigates its possible side effects as regard the drive of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Even though it would appear that the two issues (desulfurization and decarbonization) are unrelated, it turns out that there are important cross-linkages between them, which have not been examined, at least by the regulators.

Design/methodology/approach

A literature review and a qualitative risk assessment of possible CO₂ contributors are presented first. A cost-benefit analysis is then conducted on a specific case study, so as to assess the financial, as well as the environmental impact of two main compliance choices, in terms of CO₂ and sulfur oxide.

Findings

From a financial perspective, the choice of a scrubber ranks better comparing to a marine gas oil (MGO) choice because of the price difference between MGO and heavy fuel oil. However, and under different price scenarios, the scrubber choice remains sustainable only for big vessels. It is noticed that small containerships cannot outweigh the capital cost of a scrubber investment and are more sensitive in different fuel price scenarios. From an environmental perspective, scrubber ranks better than MGO in the assessment of overall emissions.

Research limitations/implications

Fuel price data in this paper was based on 2019 data. As this paper was being written, the COVID-19 pandemic created a significant upheaval in global trade flows, cargo demand and fuel prices. This made any attempt to perform even a rudimentary ex-post evaluation of the 2020 sulfur cap virtually impossible. Due to limited data, such an evaluation would be extremely difficult even under normal circumstances. This paper nevertheless made a brief analysis to investigate possible COVID-19 impacts.

Practical implications

The main implication is that the global sulfur cap will increase CO₂ emissions. In that sense, this should be factored in the IMO greenhouse gas discussion.

Originality/value

According to the knowledge of the authors, no analysis examining the impact of the 2020 sulfur cap on CO₂ emissions has yet been conducted in the scientific literature.

中文翻译：

---

2020 年全球限硫令对海洋二氧化碳排放的影响

目的

2020年1月1日起，控制区外硫排放上限由3.5%降至0.5%。本文旨在介绍与实施硫上限相关的一些挑战，并调查其在国际海事组织 (IMO) 减少二氧化碳 (CO ₂ ) 排放方面可能产生的副作用。尽管这两个问题（脱硫和脱碳）看似无关，但事实证明它们之间存在重要的交叉联系，至少监管机构没有对此进行审查。

设计/方法/方法

首先介绍了可能的 CO ₂贡献者的文献综述和定性风险评估。然后对特定案例研究进行成本效益分析，以评估两个主要合规选择（在 CO ₂和氧化硫方面）的财务和环境影响。

发现

从财务角度来看，由于 MGO 和重燃料油之间的价格差异，与船用轻油 (MGO) 的选择相比，洗涤器的选择排名更好。然而，在不同的价格情景下，洗涤器的选择仍然只适用于大型船舶。值得注意的是，小型集装箱船不能超过洗涤塔投资的资本成本，并且在不同的燃料价格情况下更为敏感。从环境角度来看，洗涤器在总体排放评估中的排名优于 MGO。

研究限制/影响

本文中的燃油价格数据基于 2019 年的数据。在撰写本文时，COVID-19 大流行对全球贸易流动、货物需求和燃料价格造成了重大动荡。这使得几乎不可能对 2020 年硫含量上限进行基本的事后评估。由于数据有限，即使在正常情况下，这样的评估也非常困难。尽管如此，本文还是进行了简要分析，以调查可能的 COVID-19 影响。

实际影响

主要含义是全球硫上限将增加 CO ₂排放。从这个意义上说，这应该在 IMO 温室气体讨论中考虑在内。

原创性/价值

据作者所知，科学文献中尚未对 2020 年硫排放上限对 CO ₂排放的影响进行分析。