We document significant persistence in the market timing performance of active individual investors, suggesting that some investors are skilled at timing. Using data on all trades by active Finnish individual investors over almost 15 years, we also show that the net purchases of skilled versus unskilled investors predict monthly market returns. Our results lend credibility to the view that market returns are predictable, without having to specify which variables active investors use to successfully time the market. (JEL G10, G11, G12, G14, G15).

中文翻译：

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月度市场回报是否可预测？

我们记录了活跃的个人投资者在市场择时表现方面的显着持续性，这表明一些投资者善于择时。使用活跃的芬兰个人投资者近 15 年来所有交易的数据，我们还表明，熟练投资者与非熟练投资者的净购买量预测每月市场回报。我们的结果为市场回报是可预测的观点提供了可信度，而无需具体说明活跃投资者使用哪些变量来成功把握市场时机。（JEL G10、G11、G12、G14、G15）。