Using spatially disaggregated daily crime data for the City of Los Angeles, this paper estimates the impact of ambient temperature on crime, and how this relationship varies across neighborhoods. Our estimates suggest that, relative to cooler days, overall crime rates are 1.72% and 1.90% higher when daily maximum temperature exceeds 75 and 90 degrees Fahrenheit respectively. This heat-crime relationship is much stronger in low-income neighborhoods, and is largely driven by non-pecuniary crimes of passion, such as domestic crimes and crimes against intimate partners. Using internal policing data, we find that the surge in crime is not a result of reduced policing effort in low-income areas during hot days. Instead, we document that characteristics of the built environment such as housing age and urban greenery are highly correlated with the slope of the heat-crime relationship. Our estimates suggest that the monetary cost of heat-induced crime incurred by the highest poverty neighborhoods is five times larger than that incurred by more affluent areas, highlighting the starkly differential impact of extreme weather even over small geographies within cities.

本文使用洛杉矶市的按空间分类的每日犯罪数据，估算了环境温度对犯罪的影响以及这种关系在各个社区之间的变化。我们的估计表明，相对于凉爽的日子，当每日最高温度超过75华氏度和90华氏度时，总体犯罪率分别高出1.72％和1.90％。在低收入社区中，这种热犯罪关系更加牢固，并且在很大程度上是由非金钱的激情犯罪驱动的，例如家庭犯罪和侵害亲密伴侣的犯罪。使用内部警务数据，我们发现犯罪率上升并不是在炎热的日子中低收入地区警务工作减少的结果。反而，我们记录到，房屋环境和城市绿化等建筑环境特征与热犯罪关系的斜率高度相关。我们的估计表明，最贫穷的社区所造成的热犯罪的金钱成本是较富裕地区所造成的金钱成本的五倍，这突显了即使在城市中较小的地区，极端天气的影响也截然不同。