Subsidies initially installed to stimulate green capacity investments tend to be withdrawn after some time. This paper analyzes the effect on investment of this phenomenon in a dynamic framework with demand uncertainty. We find that increasing the probability of subsidy withdrawal incentivizes the firm to accelerate investment at the expense of a smaller investment size. A similar effect is found when subsidy size as such is increased. When subsidy withdrawal risk is zero or very limited, installing a subsidy could increase welfare. In general we get that the larger the subsidy withdrawal probability, the smaller the welfare maximizing subsidy rate is. Therefore, a policy maker aiming to maximize welfare should try to reduce subsidy withdrawal risk.

最初为刺激绿色能力投资而安装的补贴往往会在一段时间后撤销。本文在需求不确定的动态框架下分析了该现象对投资的影响。我们发现，增加补贴撤回的可能性会激励企业以较小的投资规模为代价来加速投资。当补贴规模如此增加时，也会发现类似的效果。当补贴撤出风险为零或非常有限时，安装补贴可以增加福利。总的来说，我们得出的补贴撤出概率越大，福利最大化补贴率就越小。因此，旨在实现最大福利的政策制定者应尝试降低补贴撤回的风险。