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Projecting the effect of crop yield increases, dietary change and different price scenarios on land use under two different state security regimes
International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-10 , DOI: 10.1080/14735903.2021.1907991
James A. Reilly 1, 2 , Terence P. Dawson 3 , Robin B. Matthews 2 , Pete Smith 1 , Corran C. Musk 4 , Jacqueline M. Potts 5 , J. Gareth Polhill 6
Affiliation  

ABSTRACT

Using an Agent-Based Model with a two-scale decision making process incorporating economic, geographic, social and political subsystems, we projected the rate and proportion of land use change in England and Wales from the year 2000 to the year 2050. These projections were used to assess the impact of proposals to improve arable yields, change diet and reduce consumer waste under two contrasting political ideologies, protectionist or free trade, on the proportions and rate of change of agricultural land use. The model does not calculate what is possible to achieve but what is probable, given the simulated processes, which are based on landowner satisficing behaviour and government political ideologies. Our main finding is that protectionist policies produced the least change. We also found that arable crop yield improvements, dietary change and waste reduction promoted pasture over arable use because these drivers reduced arable income on marginal arable land. The proportion of land in private and farm-forestry, a land use proposed as a greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measure, reduced, when private and farm-forestry was not a protected use and when there were no incentives to plant or maintain trees.



中文翻译:

预测两种不同国家安全制度下作物产量增加、饮食变化和不同价格情景对土地利用的影响

摘要

使用基于代理的模型和包含经济、地理、社会和政治子系统的两尺度决策过程,我们预测了英格兰和威尔士从 2000 年到 2050 年土地利用变化的速率和比例。这些预测是用于评估在保护主义或自由贸易这两种截然不同的政治意识形态下提高耕地产量、改变饮食和减少消费者浪费的建议对农业土地利用的比例和变化率的影响。该模型不计算可能实现的目标,而是计算可能实现的目标,考虑到基于土地所有者满意行为和政府政治意识形态的模拟过程。我们的主要发现是保护主义政策产生的变化最少。我们还发现耕地作物产量提高,饮食改变和减少浪费促进了牧场使用而不是耕地使用,因为这些驱动因素减少了边缘可耕地的耕地收入。当私人和农林不是受保护的用途以及没有种植或维护树木的激励措施时,私有和农林的土地比例(一种提议作为温室气体(GHG)缓解措施的土地用途)会减少。

更新日期:2021-06-09
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