当前位置: X-MOL 学术Oxford Bull. Econ. Statistics › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Are Recoveries all the Same: GDP and TFP?*
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics ( IF 2.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-09 , DOI: 10.1111/obes.12439
Sui Luo 1 , Yu‐Fan Huang 1 , Richard Startz 2
Affiliation  

Recessions and subsequent recoveries are frequently classified as ‘L-shaped’ or ‘U-shaped’, with output losses in the former being permanent and losses in the latter at least partially made up by higher than average growth during the recovery. We estimate the probability of a U-shaped recovery for postwar NBER recessions. Most earlier recessions were U-shaped but more recent recessions have been L-shaped. The shape of recoveries is tracked relatively well by durable consumption, investment, labour hours and employment. Posterior probabilities for the shape of recoveries for nondurable consumption and participation rate are less decisive. However, total factor productivity appears to recover rapidly after all recessions.

中文翻译:

回收率都一样吗:GDP 和 TFP?*

衰退和随后的复苏通常被归类为“L 型”或“U 型”,前者的产出损失是永久性的,后者的损失至少部分由复苏期间高于平均水平的增长所弥补。我们估计了战后 NBER 衰退出现 U 型复苏的可能性。大多数早期的衰退是 U 型的,但最近的衰退是 L 型的。耐用消费、投资、劳动时间和就业对复苏的形状有较好的跟踪。非耐用品消费和参与率复苏形状的后验概率不太具有决定性。然而,在所有衰退之后,全要素生产率似乎迅速恢复。
更新日期:2021-04-09
down
wechat
bug