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Key climate change stressors of marine ecosystems along the path of the East African coastal current
Ocean & Coastal Management ( IF 4.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-10 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2021.105627
Z.L. Jacobs , A. Yool , F. Jebri , M. Srokosz , S. van Gennip , S.J. Kelly , M. Roberts , W. Sauer , A.M. Queirós , K.E. Osuka , M. Samoilys , A.E. Becker , E. Popova

For the countries bordering the tropical Western Indian Ocean (TWIO), living marine resources are vital for food security. However, this region has largely escaped the attention of studies investigating potential impacts of future climate change on the marine environment. Understanding how marine ecosystems in coastal East Africa may respond to various climatic stressors is vital for the development of conservation and other ocean management policies that can help to adapt to climate change impacts on natural and associated human systems. Here, we use a high-resolution (1/4°) ocean model, run under a high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) until the end of the 21st century, to identify key regionally important climate change stressors over the East African Coastal Current (EACC) that flows along the coasts of Kenya and Tanzania. We also discuss these stressors in the context of projections from lower resolution CMIP5 models. Our results indicate that the main drivers of dynamics and the associated ecosystem response in the TWIO are different between the two monsoon seasons. Our high resolution model projects weakening of the Northeast monsoon (December–February) winds and slight strengthening of the Southeast monsoon (May–September) winds throughout the course of the 21st century, consistent with CMIP5 models. The projected shallower mixed layers and weaker upwelling during the Northeast Monsoon considerably reduce the availability of surface nutrients and primary production. Meanwhile, primary production during the Southeast monsoon is projected to be relatively stable until the end of the century. In parallel, a widespread warming of up to 5 °C is projected year-round with extreme events such as marine heatwaves becoming more intense and prolonged, with the first year-long event projected to occur as early as the 2030s. This extreme warming will have significant consequences for both marine ecosystems and the coastal populations dependent on these marine resources. These region-specific stressors highlight the importance of dynamic ocean features such as the upwelling systems associated with key ocean currents. This indicates the need to develop and implement a regional system that monitors the anomalous behaviour of such regionally important features. Additionally, this study draws attention to the importance of investment in decadal prediction methods, including high resolution modelling, that can provide information at time and space scales that are more directly relevant to regional management and policy making.



中文翻译:

东非沿海海流沿线海洋生态系统的主要气候变化压力源

对于与热带西印度洋(TWIO)接壤的国家而言,海洋生物资源对粮食安全至关重要。但是,该地区在很大程度上逃避了研究未来气候变化对海洋环境的潜在影响的研究的注意了解东非沿海地区的海洋生态系统如何应对各种气候压力,对于制定养护和其他海洋管理政策至关重要,这些政策可以帮助适应气候变化对自然和相关人类系统的影响。在这里,我们使用高分辨率(1/4°)海洋模型,该模型在高排放情景下(RCP 8.5)一直运行到21世纪末,以识别东非沿海海流( EACC)沿着肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚的海岸流动。我们还将在较低分辨率CMIP5模型的预测范围内讨论这些压力源。我们的结果表明,在两个季风季节之间,TWIO中动力学的主要驱动力和相关的生态系统响应有所不同与CMIP5模型一致,我们的高分辨率模型预测了整个21世纪东北季风(12月至2月)的风减弱和东南季风(5月至9月)的风略有增强。预计东北季风期间较浅的混合层和较弱的上升流将大大减少地表养分的供应和初级生产。同时,预计到本世纪末,东南季风期间的初级生产将相对稳定。同时,预计全年会出现高达5°C的普遍升温,诸如海洋热浪之类的极端事件将变得更加强烈和延长,预计最早的一年事件将在2030年代发生。这种极端变暖将对海洋生态系统和依赖这些海洋资源的沿海人口造成重大影响。这些特定于地区的压力源强调了动态海洋特征的重要性,例如与关键洋流相关的上升流系统。这表明需要开发和实施一个区域系统来监视此类具有区域重要性的特征的异常行为。此外,这项研究引起了人们对十年预测方法(包括高分辨率建模)投资的重要性的关注,这些方法可以在时空尺度上提供与区域管理和政策制定更直接相关的信息。这些特定于地区的压力源强调了动态海洋特征的重要性,例如与关键洋流相关的上升流系统。这表明需要开发和实施一个区域系统来监视此类具有区域重要性的特征的异常行为。此外,这项研究引起了人们对十年预测方法(包括高分辨率建模)投资的重要性的关注,这些方法可以在时空尺度上提供与区域管理和政策制定更直接相关的信息。这些特定于地区的压力源强调了动态海洋特征的重要性,例如与关键洋流相关的上升流系统。这表明需要开发和实施一个区域系统来监视此类具有区域重要性的特征的异常行为。此外,这项研究引起了人们对十年预测方法(包括高分辨率建模)投资的重要性的关注,这些方法可以在时空尺度上提供与区域管理和政策制定更直接相关的信息。

更新日期:2021-04-11
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