This study assesses the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on poverty, food insecurity, and diets, accounting for the complex links between the crisis and the incomes and living costs of vulnerable households. Key elements are impacts on labor supply, effects of social distancing, shifts in demand from services involving close contact, increases in the cost of logistics in food and other supply chains, and reductions in savings and investment. These are examined using IFPRI's global general equilibrium model linked to epidemiological and household models. The simulations suggest that the global recession caused by COVID-19 will be much deeper than that of the 2008–2009 financial crisis. The increases in poverty are concentrated in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa with impacts harder in urban areas than in rural. The COVID-19-related lockdown measures explain most of the fall in output, whereas declines in savings soften the adverse impacts on food consumption. Almost 150 million people are projected to fall into extreme poverty and food insecurity. Decomposition of the results shows that approaches assuming uniform income shocks would underestimate the impact by as much as one-third, emphasizing the need for the more refined approach of this study.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 对全球贫困、粮食安全和饮食的影响：全球模型情景分析的见解

本研究评估了 2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 对贫困、粮食不安全和饮食的影响，解释了危机与弱势家庭收入和生活成本之间的复杂联系。关键因素包括对劳动力供应的影响、社会距离的影响、涉及密切接触的服务的需求变化、食品和其他供应链物流成本的增加以及储蓄和投资的减少。这些都是使用 IFPRI 与流行病学和家庭模型相关的全球一般均衡模型进行检验的。模拟表明，COVID-19 造成的全球衰退将比 2008-2009 年金融危机严重得多。贫困增加集中在南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲，城市地区的影响比农村地区严重。与 COVID-19 相关的封锁措施解释了产出下降的大部分原因，而储蓄的下降则缓解了对粮食消费的不利影响。预计近 1.5 亿人将陷入极端贫困和粮食不安全。结果分解表明，假设均匀收入冲击的方法会低估多达三分之一的影响，这强调了本研究需要更精细的方法。