ABSTRACT

What impact has the ‘Arab Spring’ had upon Kazakhstan's approach to regime security? Short of the possibility of a ‘Central Asian Spring’, if and how the Arab Spring reshaped this authoritarian regime has not been addressed. A longitudinal narrative analysis of Kazakhstan's presidential rhetoric from 2005 to 2015 and fieldwork interviews indicated that the Arab Spring uprisings brought about an elite-level demonstration effect. That is, the regime perceived a heightened threat to its security as a result of instability and regime responses elsewhere, and it sought to shore-up its position and forestall the emergence of local challenges as a consequence of this, whether through discourse, behaviour or policy. This suggests that uprisings elsewhere, including those outside of a state's immediate region, can affect perceptions of regime security in the medium term, despite the absence of domestic unrest at home and a lack of close social and cultural ties between regions.

摘要

“阿拉伯之春”对哈萨克斯坦对待政权安全的态度有何影响？除了“中亚之春”的可能性之外，还没有讨论阿拉伯之春是否以及如何重塑这个专制政权。对哈萨克斯坦 2005 年至 2015 年总统言论的纵向叙事分析和实地调查表明，阿拉伯之春起义带来了精英层面的示范效应。也就是说，该政权认为由于其他地方的不稳定和政权反应而对其安全构成更大的威胁，它试图通过话语、行为或政策。这表明其他地方的起义，包括一国邻近地区以外的起义，