Historically, natural gas prices in the United States are closely linked to supply disruptions in the Gulf Coast due to the dominance of offshore and Gulf states production. Over the past decade, the combined share of natural gas production from the states in shale-rich areas has increased dramatically, while Gulf region production has become less important. One reasonable assumption is then that the supply disruptions due to weather events in the Gulf Coast exert a much smaller effect on natural gas prices compared to the pre-shale era. This paper uses panel distributed lag models to empirically test this hypothesis using state-level natural gas prices from 1995 to 2016. Property losses due to natural hazards in Texas and Louisiana are used to represent supply shocks in the natural gas market from the Gulf area. Results show that natural gas prices in both importing and exporting states have become less responsive to natural hazards in Texas but more sensitive to hazard events in Louisiana since the shale boom. These results are robust to the break dates used, the geographical location of states considered, and the empirical specifications employed. The increasing importance of Louisiana in natural gas pricing is perhaps due to its role as the benchmark pricing location for US natural gas and its expansive pipeline networks.

从历史上看，由于近海和海湾国家生产的主导地位，美国的天然气价格与墨西哥湾沿岸的供应中断密切相关。在过去的十年中，页岩气丰富地区各州的天然气总产量份额急剧增加，而海湾地区的天然气产量已变得不那么重要。因此，一个合理的假设是，与页岩气前时代相比，由于墨西哥湾沿岸的天气事件造成的供应中断对天然气价格的影响要小得多。本文使用面板分布滞后模型，使用1995年至2016年的州级天然气价格，对这一假设进行了实证检验。得克萨斯州和路易斯安那州的自然灾害造成的财产损失被用来代表海湾地区天然气市场的供应冲击。结果表明，自页岩热潮以来，进出口州的天然气价格对得克萨斯州的自然灾害反应越来越小，但对路易斯安那州的灾害事件更加敏感。这些结果对于所使用的休息日期，所考虑的州的地理位置以及所采用的经验指标具有鲁棒性。路易斯安那州在天然气定价中的重要性日益提高，这可能是由于其作为美国天然气及其庞大的管道网络的基准定价地点所起的作用。