The Kilombero Valley, one of East Africa’s largest seasonal wetlands, is a high-potential agricultural development corridor area in Tanzania. This seasonally flooded wetland is mainly used by smallholder farmers who cultivate during the rainy season, although there are some community-based irrigation systems that reduce hydro-climatic risks. In this study, we aim to understand how farmers’ aspirations and visions about the future are related to the current agricultural practices and human–water interaction. We specifically investigate the differences between farmers from rainfed and irrigated agriculture by using focus group discussions. Analysis of the in-depth interviews highlights how farmers’ actions both shape and respond to this highly dynamic and uncertain environment. Furthermore, we identify a close link, driven by the farmers’ level of agency, between aspirations and expected agro-economic development. The heterogeneity of farmers’ agency and hence their ability to cope with change is not only based on the socioeconomic status but also on their perception of the physical environment. We thus recommend that attention is also paid to the capacity for coping with environmental challenges that influences the level of farmers’ aspiration.

Kilombero山谷是东非最大的季节性湿地之一，是坦桑尼亚的高潜力农业发展走廊地区。尽管有些社区灌溉系统减少了水文气候风险，但季节性灌溉的湿地主要供在雨季耕种的小农使用。在这项研究中，我们旨在了解农民对未来的抱负和远见如何与当前的农业实践和人与水的相互作用相关。通过焦点小组讨论，我们专门研究了雨养农业和灌溉农业的农民之间的差异。对深入访谈的分析强调了农民的行为如何塑造和应对这种高度动态和不确定的环境。此外，我们确定了紧密的联系，在愿望和预期的农业经济发展之间，由农民的代理水平驱动。农民代理机构的异质性，以及他们应对变化的能力，不仅取决于社会经济地位，而且还取决于他们对自然环境的感知。因此，我们建议还应注意应对影响农民愿望水平的环境挑战的能力。