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Quantitative evidence for leapfrogging in urban growth
Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science ( IF 3.511 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-07 , DOI: 10.1177/2399808321998713
Manon Glockmann , Yunfei Li 1 , Tobia Lakes 2 , Jürgen P Kropp 1 , Diego Rybski 3
Affiliation  

Urban growth can take different forms, such as infill, expansion and leapfrog development. Here we focus on leapfrogging, which is characterised as new urban development bypassing vacant land. Analysing a sample of 100 global locations, we study the probability that land cover is converted from non-urban to urban as a function of the minimum distance to existing urban cells. The probability decreases with the distance but in many of the considered real-world samples it increases again just before the maximum possible distance. Comparing these empirical findings with numerical ones from a gravitational model, we discover that the characteristic increase can be found in both. Our results indicate that the conversion probability as a function of the distance to urban land cover includes three urban growth domains. (i) Expansion of existing settlements, (ii) discontinuous development of coincidental new settlements rather close to existing ones and (iii) leapfrogging of new settlements far away from existing ones. We conclude that gravitational effects can explain discontinuous development but leapfrogging can be attributed to a scarcity of developable land at long distances to settlements.



中文翻译:

跨越式增长的定量证据

城市增长可以采取不同的形式,例如填充,扩张和跨越式发展。在这里,我们重点关注跨越式发展,这是绕过闲置土地的新城市发展的特征。通过分析全球100个地点的样本,我们研究了土地覆盖范围从非城市区域转换为城市区域的概率,该概率是距现有城市单元的最小距离的函数。概率随着距离的增加而降低,但是在许多被认为的现实世界样本中,概率在最大可能距离之前再次增加。将这些经验结果与引力模型的数值结果进行比较,我们发现可以在两者中找到特征性的增加。我们的结果表明,转换概率与到城市土地覆盖的距离成函数关系,包括三个城市增长域。(i)扩大现有的定居点,(ii)偶然的新近定居点的不连续发展,相当接近现有定居点,以及(iii)远离现有定居点的新定居点的跨越。我们得出的结论是,引力作用可以解释不连续的发展,但跨越的原因可以归因于与定居点长距离的可开发土地的稀缺性。

更新日期:2021-04-08
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