The COVID-19 impact on the global economy combined with partial lockdown measures in Ethiopia represents a large, unprecedented shock to the country's economy. The social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier model, built on the most up-to-date SAM (2017) for Ethiopia, shows that the country suffered a 14.3% loss in GDP (Birr 43.5 billion or US$1.9 billion) during the lockdown period compared to the no-COVID case during the same period. Nearly two-thirds of the losses come from the services sector. Although no direct restrictions were imposed on the agriculture sector, which is the primary means of livelihood for most, the sector faces a 4.7% loss in output due to its linkages with the rest of the economy. We find dissimilar income and poverty effects across households by income quintile and level of urbanization. The study also considers two recovery scenarios and generates relevant insights on the potential impacts of COVID-19 by the end of 2020. The earmarked relief and recovery plan resources can only help the economy to recover if targeted in an efficient way towards sectors most affected by COVID-19, and further resources are mobilized to support strategic sectors—those with the highest economywide multiplier effects—and vulnerable communities.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 在非洲的短期经济影响：埃塞俄比亚的见解

COVID-19 对全球经济的影响加上埃塞俄比亚的部分封锁措施，对该国经济造成了前所未有的巨大冲击。建立在埃塞俄比亚最新 SAM (2017) 基础上的社会核算矩阵 (SAM) 乘数模型显示，该国在封锁期间的 GDP 损失了 14.3%（435 亿比尔或 19 亿美元）与同期的非 COVID 病例相比。近三分之二的损失来自服务业。尽管作为大多数人的主要谋生手段的农业部门没有受到直接限制，但由于与其他经济部门的联系，该部门面临着 4.7% 的产出损失。我们发现不同收入五分位数和城市化水平对家庭的收入和贫困影响不同。