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COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity ( IF 7.914 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-07
Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis

We develop several pieces of evidence about the reallocative effects of the COVID-19 shock on impact and over time. First, the shock caused three to four new hires for every ten layoffs from March 1 to mid-May 2020. Second, we project that one-third or more of the layoffs during this period are permanent in the sense that job losers won't return to their old jobs at their previous employers. Third, firm-level forecasts at a one-year horizon imply rates of expected job and sales reallocation that are two to five times larger from April to June 2020 than before the pandemic. Fourth, full days working from home will triple from 5 percent of all workdays in 2019 to more than 15 percent after the pandemic ends. We also document pandemic-induced job gains at many firms and a sharp rise in cross-firm equity return dispersion in reaction to the pandemic. After developing the evidence, we consider implications for the economic outlook and for policy. Unemployment benefit levels that exceed worker earnings, policies that subsidize employee retention irrespective of the employer's commercial outlook, and barriers to worker mobility and business formation impede reallocation responses to the COVID-19 shock.



中文翻译:

COVID-19也是重新分配的冲击

我们得出了一些证据,证明了COVID-19休克对撞击的影响以及随着时间的推移而产生的重新分配作用。首先,从2020年3月1日到2020年5月中旬,每10个裁员会导致三到四名新雇员。其次,我们预计在此期间三分之一或更多的裁员是永久性的,这意味着失业者不会回到以前的雇主的旧工作。第三,对公司的一年期预测表明,从2020年4月至2020年6月,预期工作和销售重新分配的比率是大流行之前的二到五倍。第四,大流行结束后,在家工作的全天数将从2019年所有工作日的5%增长到15%以上。我们还记录了大流行病在许多公司引起的工作增长,以及对大流行病的反应引起的跨公司股权收益差额的急剧上升。在得出证据之后,我们考虑对经济前景和政策的影响。超过工人收入的失业救济金水平,不考虑雇主的商业前景而对员工保留进行补贴的政策以及工人流动性和业务形成的障碍阻碍了对COVID-19冲击的再分配反应。

更新日期:2021-04-08
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