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Predictive Properties of a General Risk-Need Measure in Diverse Justice Involved Youth: A Prospective Field Validity Study
Criminal Justice and Behavior ( IF 2.562 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-07 , DOI: 10.1177/00938548211004669
Jessica Prince 1 , Kristine Lovatt 2 , Keira C. Stockdale 3 , Mark E. Olver 1
Affiliation  

The current investigation was a prospective field validity study examining the discrimination and calibration properties of a general risk-need tool (Level of Service Inventory–Saskatchewan Youth Edition [LSI-Sk]) in a diverse sample of 284 court adjudicated youths, rated by their youth workers on the measure and followed up an average of 9.3 years. The overall risk level and need total demonstrated moderate predictive accuracy for general, violent, and nonviolent recidivism in the aggregate sample, although area under the curve (AUC) magnitudes fluctuated among gender and Indigenous ethnocultural subgroups. Variability in AUC values for the measure’s eight criminogenic need domains further reflected greater salience of certain needs among subgroups. Finally, clinician rated level of gang involvement incrementally predicted recidivism to varying degrees after controlling for overall risk and need. Implications for responsible use of risk assessment tools as part of individualized and gender/ethnoculturally responsive risk assessment practices with youth are discussed.



中文翻译:

涉及青少年的多样司法中一般风险需要量度的预测性质:前瞻性现场有效性研究

当前的调查是一项前瞻性现场有效性研究,该研究在284名受法庭审判的年轻人的不同样本中检查了通用风险需求工具(服务水平清单–萨斯喀彻温青年版[LSI-Sk])的辨别和校准特性,对青年工人的措施进行了跟踪,平均随访了9.3年。总体风险水平和需求总量显示总体样本中一般,暴力和非暴力累犯的预测准确性中等,尽管性别和土著民族文化亚组的曲线下面积(AUC)幅度有所波动。该措施的八个犯罪需求领域的AUC值变化进一步反映了亚组中某些需求的显着性。最后,在控制了总体风险和需求之后,临床医生对帮派的侵害等级定为在不同程度上递增地预测累犯。讨论了风险评估工具作为青年人的个性化和对性别/民族文化敏感的风险评估方法的一部分的负责任使用的含义。

更新日期:2021-04-08
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