We introduce a new bottom-up model for simulating Future Technology Transformations in the European residential heating sector, FTT:Heat. The model simulates the uptake and replacement of heating technologies by households in all individual Member States up to 2050, and allows to simulate the potential effect of real-world policy instruments aiming at an increased uptake of low-carbon technologies. It features an explicit representation of households' technology choices, based on observed preferences and non-linear diffusion dynamics. Decision-makers are modelled as individual households, which are subject to limited information and bounded rationality. Their decisions reflect behavioural factors and preferences at the micro level, and may result in sub-optimal outcomes from a macroeconomic perspective. For demonstration, we simulate policy mixes for reaching the EU's 2030 renewable heating targets in each Member State. Under current diffusion trends, some countries are estimated to continue an ongoing transition towards renewable heating, while others would hardly see any decarbonisation. For increasing the share of renewable heating by at least ten percentage points until 2030, 20 Member States need to introduce additional policies, the necessary stringency of which differs between countries. Due to the slow turnover of heating systems, resulting cost increases faced by households could persist over decades.

我们引入了一种新的自下而上的模型来模拟欧洲住宅供暖领域的未来技术转型，即FTT：Heat。该模型模拟了直至2050年所有单个成员国的家庭对供暖技术的吸收和替代，并允许模拟旨在提高对低碳技术的吸收的现实世界政策工具的潜在影响。它以观察到的偏好和非线性扩散动态为基础，清楚地表现了家庭的技术选择。决策者被建模为单个家庭，这些家庭受限于有限的信息和有限的合理性。他们的决策从微观层面反映了行为因素和偏好，从宏观经济的角度来看可能会导致次优结果。为了示范 我们模拟了在每个成员国中实现欧盟2030年可再生供暖目标的政策组合。根据目前的扩散趋势，估计一些国家将继续向可再生供热过渡，而另一些国家则几乎看不到任何脱碳现象。为了在2030年之前将可再生供暖的份额提高至少十个百分点，需要20个成员国出台其他政策，各国对此采取的必要严格程度有所不同。由于供暖系统的周转缓慢，导致家庭面临的成本增加可能持续数十年。为了在2030年之前将可再生供暖的份额提高至少十个百分点，需要20个成员国出台其他政策，各国对此采取的必要严格程度有所不同。由于供暖系统的周转缓慢，导致家庭面临的成本增加可能持续数十年。为了在2030年之前将可再生供暖的份额提高至少十个百分点，需要20个成员国出台其他政策，各国对此采取的必要严格程度有所不同。由于供暖系统的周转缓慢，导致家庭面临的成本增加可能持续数十年。