Analysis of climate change impacts as well as conscious decision-making and long-term planning in complex water resources systems require use of innovative approaches under conditions of deep climate uncertainty. This research aims to design and evaluate robust adaptable plans under deep climate uncertainties in the agricultural sector. For this purpose, a combination of the Adaptation Pathways (AP) approach in conjunction with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to evaluate the robustness of adaptation actions and to design robust adaptation pathways under future climate uncertainties in the Hablehroud River Basin, Iran. Deep climate uncertainties are specified as plausible climate scenario combinations according to the average precipitation and temperature changes in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, 2020–2080. According to the results, changes in cropping patterns represent the most robust adaptation action across various combinations of climate scenarios. Other adaptation actions, including deficit irrigation, changes in crop planting dates, and improving irrigation efficiency, are fairly robust in the specific time period from 2020 to 2080. Sequencing of these adaptation actions based on their robustness and expiry date results in designing adaptation pathway maps under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Finally, different preferred pathways are identified based on the expiry date of each robust adaptation action. Changes in cropping patterns can be selected as the most robust adaptation pathway (robustness greater than 80) under deep climate uncertainty among these different pathways. Suggesting other preferred pathways can be helpful to select reasonable pathways for implementation.

分析气候变化影响以及在复杂的水资源系统中进行有意识的决策和长期规划，需要在气候不确定性严重的条件下采用创新方法。这项研究旨在设计和评估在农业部门存在严重气候不确定性的情况下强有力的适应性计划。为此，结合了适应途径（AP）方法和土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）模型，用于评估适应行动的鲁棒性，并设计在未来哈勃罗德河气候不确定性下的鲁棒适应途径。伊朗盆地。根据代表浓度路径（RCP）4.5和8.5中的平均降水量和温度变化，将深层气候不确定性指定为可能的气候情景组合，2020–2080。根据结果​​，种植方式的变化代表了在各种气候情景组合下最强大的适应行动。在2020年至2080年的特定时间段内，其他适应措施（包括亏缺灌溉，改变播种日期和提高灌溉效率）都相当有效。根据这些适应措施的有效性和有效期对这些适应措施进行排序，可以设计出适应途径图根据RCP 4.5和8.5。最后，根据每个有效的适应操作的到期日期，确定不同的首选途径。在这些不同途径中，在深层气候不确定性的情况下，可以将耕作方式的变化选择为最强健的适应途径（鲁棒性大于80）。