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Improvements in Cloud and Water Vapor Simulations Over the Tropical Oceans in CMIP6 Compared to CMIP5
Earth and Space Science ( IF 3.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-07 , DOI: 10.1029/2020ea001520
Jonathan H. Jiang 1 , Hui Su 1 , Longtao Wu 1 , Chengxing Zhai 1 , Kathleen A. Schiro 1, 2
Affiliation  

Clouds and water vapor are among the most difficult quantities for global climate models to simulate because they are affected by physical processes that operate over scales unresolved by current climate models. We use NASA satellite data to assess the representation of clouds and water vapor structures in 28 climate models that participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Each model is assigned numerical scores based on its performance in simulating spatial mean, variance and pattern correlation of multi-year mean clouds and water vapor structures in lower, middle, upper troposphere, and near the tropopause over tropical oceans. We find measurable improvements in CMIP6 models relative to CMIP5 models for both clouds and water vapor. The differences between models and satellite observations and the spread across the models are reduced. In addition, we find that the models' equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is correlated with overall performance scores for both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, with a weaker correlation in CMIP6, suggesting that the models that capture better tropical clouds and water vapor distributions tend to have higher ECS. The physical processes responsible for the apparent correlation between ECS and model performance score warrant further study.

中文翻译:

与CMIP5相比,CMIP6中热带海洋云和水汽模拟的改进

对于全球气候模型而言,云和水蒸气是最难模拟的数量,因为它们受到物理过程的影响,而这些物理过程的运行规模超出了当前气候模型无法解决的范围。我们使用NASA卫星数据评估参与耦合模型比对项目第6阶段(CMIP6)的28个气候模型中云和水汽结构的表示。根据每个模型在模拟热带海洋上,中,上对流层以及对流层顶附近多年平均云和水汽结构的空间均值,方差和模式相关性方面的性能,为其分配数值分数。我们发现CMIP6模型相对于CMIP5模型在云和水汽方面都有可测量的改进。模型与卫星观测值之间的差异以及模型之间的分布减小了。此外,我们发现该模型的平衡气候敏感性(ECS)与CMIP5和CMIP6模型的整体性能得分相关,而CMIP6的相关性较弱,这表明捕获更好的热带云和水汽分布的模型倾向于拥有更高的ECS。导致ECS与模型性能评分之间明显相关的物理过程值得进一步研究。这表明捕获更好的热带云和水汽分布的模型往往具有更高的ECS。导致ECS与模型性能评分之间明显相关的物理过程值得进一步研究。这表明捕获更好的热带云和水汽分布的模型往往具有更高的ECS。导致ECS与模型性能评分之间明显相关的物理过程值得进一步研究。
更新日期:2021-05-18
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