We explore patterns of street earnings surprises over time. We find a steady increasing trend in positive street earnings surprises over the past two decades. This trend reflects an asymmetric shift to the right—from substantially fewer small earnings surprises around zero to many more and larger ones well above zero. A difference-in-differences analysis reveals that this pattern cannot be explained by a similar pattern in the distribution of generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) earnings surprises. The increasing trend is also steeper for firms with earnings guidance. We suggest that the shift in the pattern of street earnings surprises over time is best attributed to analysts’ increasing inclusion of positive manager-initiated and other similar non-GAAP adjustments in street earnings per share. This behavior has produced an ever-increasing stream of positive street earnings surprises.

中文翻译：

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过去二十年收益意外增长趋势的证据：经理发起的非公认会计原则调整的作用

我们探索随时间变化的街头收入惊喜模式。我们发现在过去的二十年中，正面的街道收益意外呈稳定增长的趋势。这一趋势反映了一种不对称的向右转变——从零附近的小幅收益意外大幅减少到远高于零的更多和更大的收益意外。差异分析表明，这种模式不能用公认会计原则 (GAAP) 收益意外分布中的类似模式来解释。对于有盈利指导的公司来说，增长趋势也更加陡峭。我们认为，随着时间的推移，街道收益意外模式的转变最好归因于分析师越来越多地将积极的经理发起和其他类似的非公认会计原则调整纳入街道每股收益。