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How Tight Is the US Labor Market?
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity ( IF 7.914 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-06
Katharine G. Abraham, John C. Haltiwanger, Lea E. Rendell

We construct a generalized measure of labor market tightness based on the ratio of vacancies to effective searchers. Our generalized measure exhibits substantially less volatility than the standard measure defined as the ratio of vacancies to unemployment. Effective searchers include not only the unemployed but also those who are out of the labor force and the employed. These groups account for a substantial share of hires and their presence mutes the effects of the pronounced countercyclical movements in unemployment. The effective searcher measure also distinguishes different groups among the unemployed. During protracted contractions, the distribution of unemployment shifts toward the long-term unemployed, a group with lower relative search intensities, contributing to the smaller proportional increase in effective searchers as compared to the simple unemployment count. The Beveridge curve constructed using effective searchers is much more stable than the standard Beveridge curve. Further, the matching function for hires based on our generalized measure outperforms the matching function based on the ratio of vacancies to unemployment. Our approach thus reduces the unexplained residual variation required in the matching function to be consistent with real world data.



中文翻译:

美国劳动力市场有多紧?

我们根据职位空缺与有效搜索者的比例来构建劳动力市场紧缺程度的广义度量。我们的广义测度显示出的波动性远低于定义为空缺率与失业率的标准测度。有效的搜寻者不仅包括失业者,还包括那些没有劳动力和从业人员的人。这些群体在雇用人员中占了很大的比例,他们的存在使失业明显的反周期运动的影响减弱了。有效的搜寻者措施还可以区分失业者中的不同群体。在长期收缩期间,失业的分布向长期失业者转移,这是一个相对搜索强度较低的群体,与简单的失业人数相比,有效搜索者所占的比例增长较小。使用有效搜索器构造的贝弗里奇曲线比标准贝弗里奇曲线更稳定。此外,基于我们的广义测度的雇佣匹配函数优于基于空缺率与失业率的匹配函数。因此,我们的方法减少了匹配函数所需的无法解释的残余变化,以与真实世界的数据保持一致。

更新日期:2021-04-06
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